[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 112051
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Deep convection has increased over the western semicircle of the
circulation and is re-forming near the center.  Based on a blend of
subjective Dvorak classifications and ADT values from UW-CIMSS, the
current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt.  Hopefully we will get
a scatterometer pass over the system soon to give a better
intensity estimate.  Some strengthening is anticipated during the
next day or so, but increasing shear should halt the
intensification process, and bring about weakening, thereafter.
The official intensity forecast is above the latest model consensus.

Rene continues to move west-northwestward and should gradually turn
to the right while it moves around the western periphery of a
mid-level high pressure system for the next couple of days.  In
the latter half of the forecast period, a blocking high to the
north and northwest of Rene should force the cyclone to turn
toward the west and west-southwest.  The new official track
forecast has been shifted to the southwest of the previous one
in 3-5 days, following the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/2100Z 20.7N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 21.7N  42.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 23.3N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 24.9N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 26.4N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 27.0N  47.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 27.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 26.5N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 25.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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