[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC EDT Fri Sep 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Paulette at 11/1500 UTC is near
23.6N52.2W and is 690 nm ENE of the northern Leeward Islands and
847 nm SE of Bermuda. Paulette is moving NW at 9 kt. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained
winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 300 nm in the northern semicircle.
Seas are up to 26 ft near the center and the 12 ft seas extend
270 nm in the NE quadrant, 420 nm in the NW quadrant, 120 nm in
the SE quadrant, and 300 nm in the SW quadrant. On the forecast
track, a motion toward the northwest or west-northwest with some
increase in forward speed is expected through early Monday. The
center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Rene at 11/1500 UTC is near 20.3N
39.9W and is 943 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Rene is
moving WNW at 11 kt. The estimated central pressure is 1004 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 140 nm of the NW quadrant. Seas
are up to 15 ft near the center and the 12 ft seas extend 60 nm
in the NE quadrant and 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Rene will
continue to move WNW at the same general speed today followed by
a turn toward the northwest on Saturday and a turn toward the
north-northwest with decreasing forward speed on Sunday. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details.

A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo
Verde Islands. This wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 08N-15N between 24W-
28W. This system is expected to develop into a tropical
depression within the next few days while the system moves
generally westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance of formation through
the next 48 hours.

Shower and thunderstorm activity located over the northwestern
and central Bahamas and adjacent waters continues to show signs
of organization. In addition, surface observations indicate that
pressures have fallen over the area since yesterday and, along
with wind data, suggest that a broad area of low pressure could
be forming between the northwestern Bahamas and South Florida.
This system is forecast to move westward at about 10 mph,
crossing the Bahamas and Florida today and tonight and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The disturbance
could become a tropical depression while it is near South
Florida tonight but it is more likely to become a tropical
depression while it moves slowly west-northwestward over the
eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Bahamas, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days and
interests there, as well as along the northern and eastern Gulf
coast, should monitor its progress. There is a medium chance of
formation through the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is beginning to move across
portions of central America, with its axis along 85W from 21N
southward moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted across the NW Caribbean from 16N-22N between 84W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Mauritania near 18N16W
to 13N24W to 14N32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
along the monsoon trough from 12N-16N between 18W-32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

At 1500 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the central Gulf
from 30N49W to 23N86W. Scattered moderate convection is along
and near the trough from 24N-30N between 83W-91W. This system
could see some slow development while it moves westward and
then southwestward over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico
through early next week. There is a low chance of formation
through the next 48 hours.

At 1500 UTC, a stationary front in the western Gulf extends
from the southeast Texas coast to Mexico, from 30N95W to 20N96W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the
front from 19N-28N between 91W-98W. A trough extends in the Bay
of Campeche from 23N94W to 18N93W. Light to gentle winds are
noted in the eastern Gulf with fresh winds behind the stationary
front as noted in a recent ASCAT pass. Seas are 1-3 ft in the
eastern Gulf and 4-7 ft in the western Gulf along and behind the
stationary front.

The stationary front across the western Gulf will continue to be
stationary and weaken through Sat. Fresh to locally strong
northerly winds behind the front near the coast of Mexico will
diminish tonight or early Sat. The surface trough across the
central Gulf will drift westward over the next couple days.
Another surface trough over the NW Bahamas will cross Florida
through tonight, then move into the eastern Gulf on Sat. This
could result in increasing winds and seas over portions of the
northern Gulf this weekend and into early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

At 1500 UTC, a surface trough in the NW Caribbean was analyzed
from 21N80W to 16N85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N-
22N between 80W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted
in the SW Caribbean from 09N-15N between 76W-83W. An upper level
ridge across the eastern Caribbean is inhibiting convection.
Moderate trades are north of Colombia with light to gentle winds
across the rest of the basin. Seas range 2-5 ft.

Large swell associated with Paulette will affect the Atlantic
and Caribbean Passages through this weekend. A tropical wave in
the NW Caribbean will exit the basin tonight. Another tropical
wave may approach the Tropical N Atlantic waters and the Lesser
Antilles early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for more information on the
surface trough in the western Atlantic.

Outside of the western Atlantic surface trough and the two
tropical storms in the central Atlantic, surface ridging
extends across the basin. Some showers are moving eastward
across the eastern Atlantic, including the Canary Islands,
N of 26N between 12W-32W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
across the western and central Atlantic. Fresh to strong winds
are in the eastern Atlantic with the strongest winds off the
Western Sahara coast. Seas range 5-8 ft.

Tropical Storm Paulette will move to 24.6N 53.7W this evening,
26.1N 55.5W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 27.6N
57.5W Sat evening, 28.9N 59.9W Sun morning, then approach
Bermuda Sun night and Mon. Large swell associated with Paulette
will spread eastward into the waters offshore the Bahamas today,
and continue to build seas through this weekend. A surface
trough over the NW Bahamas will move westward across Florida
through tonight.

$$
A Reinhart
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