[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 102031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

It appeared that the storm had become better organized this
morning, but that development trend seems to have been at least
temporarily interrupted.  Rene's central features have become
rather ragged-looking, and deep convection has diminished somewhat.
It appears that the system is being disrupted a bit by easterly flow
that is undercutting the outflow layer.  There is also an apparent
dearth of low-level inflow over the southern and southeastern
portions of the circulation at this time.  Dvorak intensity
estimates from both TAFB and SAB remain T3.0/45 kt, so the
current intensity estimate is unchanged from the previous advisory.
Assuming that the upper-level winds will soon become a little more
conducive for strengthening, Rene is forecast to become a hurricane
by the weekend.  The official intensity forecast is a little below
the latest model consensus.

Rene continues its west-northwestward movement with a motion of
near 285/10 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and
then north-northwestward for the next few days, while moving around
the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone.  Later in the
forecast period,  A mid-level high is predicted to build to the
northwest of Rene, which should slow down the cyclone's forward
progress and cause it to turn to the left.  At the present time, it
appears that Rene will remain sufficiently separated from Paulette,
which is located about 800 n mi to the west, for there not to be a
significant binary interaction between the two storms.  The
official track forecast remains close to the simple dynamical model
consensus, TVCN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/2100Z 18.9N  36.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0600Z 19.4N  38.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1800Z 20.2N  40.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0600Z 21.3N  42.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/1800Z 22.7N  44.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/0600Z 24.3N  45.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/1800Z 25.8N  46.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1800Z 27.3N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1800Z 27.5N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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