[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 101438
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Vertical shear appears to have lessened somewhat over Rene, with
the estimated center more embedded within the convective cloud
mass.  The storm has also developed a better defined anticyclonic
outflow pattern.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB
are 45 kt, and that will be used for the advisory intensity.  Since
the vertical shear is not expected to be strong for the next 48
hours or so, gradual strengthening is anticipated during that time,
and Rene is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday.  This is in
reasonable agreement with the latest intensity model consensus,
IVCN.  In the latter half of the forecast period, increased westerly
shear over the tropical cyclone is expected, which should lead to
weakening.

Rene continues on a west-northwestward track, and is moving at
about 285/10 kt.  The tropical cyclone is currently located on the
southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.
Over the next few days, Rene should move around the western
periphery of this ridge and turn from a west-northwestward to a
north-northwestward heading. Around the end of the forecast period,
a high building to the northwest of the cyclone will likely cause a
significant slowing of the forward speed.  The official track
forecast is a little left of the previous one to be in better
agreement with the latest model consensus predictions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/1500Z 18.6N  35.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 19.0N  37.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 19.6N  39.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  12/0000Z 20.4N  41.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  12/1200Z 21.7N  43.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  13/0000Z 23.1N  45.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  13/1200Z 24.7N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  14/1200Z 27.6N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  15/1200Z 29.2N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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