[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 092034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Although the cloud pattern of Rene has changed little in overall
organization since earlier today, there are some indications that
the easterly shear over the storm has diminished somewhat.  Cirrus
cloud motions show that upper-level outflow is slightly more evident
over the eastern portion of the circulation, but it remains limited
over that region.  The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Vertical shear is
predicted to be modest over Rene during the next couple of days, and
this should allow for some strengthening.  The official intensity
forecast is similar to the model consensus and continues to show the
system becoming a hurricane, albeit briefly.  After day 3, the
western portion of a large upper-level trough over the eastern
Atlantic is likely to impart increased shear, which should lead to
weakening.

Conventional satellite and microwave fixes show a continued
west-northwestward motion at about 285/11 kt.  Rene is currently
located on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge over the eastern
Atlantic.  A weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 40W-45W
longitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and
north-northwest in 3-5 days.  By the end of the forecast period,
Rene's forward progress begins to be blocked by building mid-level
heights to its north and northwest, which should cause the cyclone's
forward motion to slow down significantly.  The official track
forecast has been adjusted farther to the left of the previous one,
to be closer to the latest model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/2100Z 18.0N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 18.4N  34.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 18.9N  36.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 19.5N  38.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 20.5N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  12/0600Z 21.7N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 23.5N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1800Z 26.9N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/1800Z 28.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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