[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT43 KNHC 091431
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Although easterly shear has been affecting the system, Rene is
producing vigorous deep convection, along with a broad convective
band, over its western semicircle.  Scatterometer data indicate
winds to 35 knots over the northwestern quadrant, and therefore the
system is again being designated as a tropical storm.  The cyclone
should be within an environment of moderate vertical shear, on the
western side of an upper-level anticyclone, for the next couple of
days.  Therefore, gradual strengthening is forecast, and Rene is
expected to become a hurricane late this week.  By the weekend,
increasing westerly shear should cause weakening.  The official
intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.

Rene is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/11 kt, on the
southern side of a mid-level ridge.  A weakness in the ridge near
40W longitude is likely to cause the storm to turn toward the
northwest in 2 to 3 days, followed by a turn toward the
north-northwest.  By the end of the forecast period, Rene's forward
progress should slow as it encounters a block in the mid-level
flow.  As anticipated, the official track forecast is shifted to
the left of the previous one, but not as far to the left as the
latest corrected multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/1500Z 17.6N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 18.1N  33.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 18.8N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 19.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 20.4N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 21.7N  40.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 23.5N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 27.0N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 28.7N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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