[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT43 KNHC 082034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Rene Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182020
800 PM CVT Tue Sep 08 2020

Rene has not changed much throughout the day.  The storm is
producing deep convection that is loosely organized in bands around
the center.  The satellite intensity estimates are unchanged from
earlier and range from 25 kt to 40 kt.  Based on these data and the
earlier ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is again held at 35 kt.
The eastern-most bands of Rene are now pulling west of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and the Tropical Storm Warning for those islands has
been discontinued.

Although Rene has struggled to maintain its intensity during the
past 24 hours, the models insist that the cyclone will begin to
take advantage of the generally conducive conditions of low wind
shear, high moisture, and relatively warm waters.  Therefore, the
NHC intensity forecast continues to show Rene strengthening to a
hurricane in a couple of days. Beyond that time, however, Rene will
likely be moving into an environment of strong westerly wind shear,
which should cause the storm to weaken in the 3-5 day time period.
This forecast is largely an update of the previous one and closely
follows the IVCN model.

The tropical storm continues to move westward at 14 kt.  There has
been no significant change to the track forecast reasoning.  A
mid-level ridge should continue to steer Rene westward to
west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  After that time,
the storm should slow down and gradually turn to the north and then
to the northeast as it moves into a weakness in the ridge.  There is
a little less spread in the guidance this cycle, but there remain
differences in the models concerning where and how sharply Rene
recurves.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
lies close to the TVCA and TVCX consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 16.8N  27.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 17.2N  29.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 18.0N  32.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 18.9N  34.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 19.9N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 21.3N  38.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 23.2N  40.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  12/1800Z 27.7N  42.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  13/1800Z 30.5N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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