[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 051439
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 05 2020

Omar is barely a tropical cyclone.  The center is completely exposed
to the north of a slowly shrinking area of sheared deep convection.
The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.  Omar
remains in an environment of northerly wind shear, dry air, and it
is headed toward cool waters.  These conditions should cause Omar to
finally become a remnant low soon.  Although the forecast shows the
system becoming a remnant low at 24 hours, it certainty could become
one at any time before then after its limited amount of deep
convection dissipates.  Satellite images show an approaching cold
front about 300 n mi to the northwest of Omar.  This front is
expected to merge with the system, causing Omar or its remnants to
become extratropical by Sunday afternoon.

The tropical depression is now moving northward at 9 kt.  A much
faster north-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the
remainder of the weekend as Omar, or its remnants, become more
embedded in the fast steering flow ahead of the aforementioned cold
front.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 37.4N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 39.0N  56.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 41.9N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/0000Z 45.2N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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