[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 050240
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Another burst of convection has developed near and to the south of
the center of Omar, so the system continues as a tropical
depression despite ongoing strong shear.  The initial intensity is
held at 30 kt based on recently received scatterometer data and a
satellite intensity estimated from TAFB.  A combination of
continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay
to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday
night or Sunday.

Omar is starting its expected north-northeastward turn and the
initial motion is now 070/4.  An approaching deep-layer trough
should cause Omar to turn north-northeastward tonight and Saturday
and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the
northern central Atlantic.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 35.6N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 36.8N  56.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 38.9N  55.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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