[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Fri Sep 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Omar is centered near 35.2N 57.8W at 04/1500
UTC or 390 nm ENE of Bermuda moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection and tstms
are within 150 nm SE quadrant of Omar's center. Slow weakening is
forecast during the next day or two. Omar could become a remnant
low at any time today and is expected to dissipate over the
weekend. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtmlfor
more details.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 08N to 18N
with axis near 25W, moving W at 15-20 kt. A 1011 mb low is near
13N25W associated with the wave. Scattered moderate convection is
is within 360 nm NW semicircle of the low. Gradual development of
this system is expected as it moves westward to west-
northwestward, and a tropical depression is likely to form late
this weekend or early next week when the system reaches the
central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance this system
may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next two days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc extending from 07N to 18N
with axis near 49W, moving W at 10 kt. There is no convection
associated with the wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean extending S of 18N with axis
near 63W, moving W at moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate and
isolated tstms are from 13N to 15N between 62W and 65W.

A tropical wave axis is in the western Caribbean extending S of
19N with axis near 86W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and
tstms are S of 22N W of 83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 13N25W to 11N33W to
10N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 19N E of 20W
and from 06N to 13N between 29W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the north-central and NE Gulf
this morning with variable light to gentle winds E of 90W. Over
the western half of the basin, a surface trough extends from 26N
southward to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered heavy showers and
tstms associated with the trough are S of 27N and W of 91W. Latest
sactterometer data show moderate to fresh ENE winds in the
vicinity of the trough as well.

High pres over the NE Gulf will dissipate today ahead of a weak
front moving into the far northern Gulf Sat. The front will stall
over the far northern Gulf through Sun, then slowly dissipate
through early next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse NW of
the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat night, then moderate
to fresh thereafter.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There are two tropical waves in the Caribbean, one over the
western basin and a second one just W of the Lesser Antilles.
Please see the Tropical Waves section above for further details.
In the central Caribbean, diffluent flow to the east of a middle
to upper level inverted trough supports an area of heavy showers
between 66W and 74W, which is affecting Hispaniola, the Mona
Passage and portions of western Puerto Rico. This convection will
shift westward and is expected to dissipate near the Windward
Passage early on Sat. Otherwise, scattered showers and tstms are
in the SW basin being supported by the E Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong trades will pulse in the central Caribbean, with
moderate to fresh trades elsewhere through Sat. Trades will
diminish basin-wide by the end of the weekend into early next week
as high pres N-NE of the area weakens.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface ridging dominate the Atlc subtropical waters today with
mainly fair weather, except for an area of scattered showers N of
27N between 53W and 69W.

The ridge extending along 29N supports moderate to locally fresh
trades S of 25N and gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 25N.
A weak cold front may settle S of 31N this weekend weakening the
ridge before stalling and dissipating. New high pressure N-NE area
will support mainly moderate E-SE flow basin-wide early next
week.

$$
Ramos
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