[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 04 2020

Omar produced minimal deep convection from around 2100 UTC
yesterday through 1200 UTC this morning. Since that time, a new
burst of convection has developed close enough to the depression's
center to justify continuing advisories for the moment. If this
convection dissipates soon, like a few small overnight bursts did,
Omar will likely be declared post-tropical this afternoon due to a
lack of organized convection. ASCAT-B showed a few believable
25-30 kt vectors and is the basis for the intensity analysis.

Omar's status has no meaningful bearing on the forecast. An
approaching deep-layer trough from the west should cause the weak
cyclone to turn northeastward or north-northeastward later today
and accelerate in that direction through the weekend. A lack of
deep convection and the increase in forward speed will likely cause
Omar to dissipate by early Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/1500Z 35.2N  57.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/0000Z 35.8N  57.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/1200Z 37.1N  56.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  06/0000Z 39.0N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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