[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Sep 3 21:32:53 CDT 2020


WTNT45 KNHC 040232
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

The larger mass of deep convection from earlier today that was south
of the exposed low-level center of Omar has since dissipated. The
only convection that remains is a few small patches in the eastern
semicircle. The initial intensity is being lowered to 25 kt, and is
based off a recent ASCAT overpass showing peak 26 kt wind vectors.
If the current state of the tropical depression persists through
much of tonight, then by definition the system would no longer
qualify as a tropical cyclone. The only chance for Omar to hang on
despite very strong northerly wind shear is the fact that it is
still over SSTs of about 27 C. After 24 h, dry air is expected to
envelop the system. Therefore, over this weekend whatever remains of
Omar is expected to dissipate ahead of an approaching mid-latitude
frontal system. The official NHC forecast shows Omar degenerating
into a remnant low by Friday morning and dissipating by Sunday
morning, and this scenario is in agreement with the global models.

The depression continues to move east-southeast at 9 kt in steering
flow around a subtropical ridge to its south, and another, larger
low pressure system to its northeast. The other low is forecast to
continue to lift northeastward, which should result in an end to the
southerly component of Omar's motion tonight or early Friday. By
Friday night, a turn to the northeast is expected to occur as Omar
gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal
system. The latest NHC track forecast is little changed from the
previous one, and lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0300Z 35.2N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 35.2N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  05/0000Z 35.6N  57.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/1200Z 36.8N  56.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  06/0000Z 38.3N  55.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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