[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 032034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 03 2020

The GOES-16 visible and enhanced infrared satellite presentation has
changed little during the past several hours and is comprised of a
sheared depression with a deep convective mass decoupled well to the
south of the surface circulation center.  Based on the earlier
METOP-B scatterometer pass and the Dvorak satellite intensity
estimates, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  Gradual
weakening is still forecast during the next couple of days as the
cyclone continues to move in the persistent, blistering northerly
shear environment on the order of 40 to 45 kt.  Large-scale models
insist that Omar will degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours, or
less, and dissipate by Sunday morning.  The NHC forecast will, once
again, reflect this scenario.

It appears that the slightly larger non-tropical low a few hundred
miles to the east-northeast of Omar is causing the depression to
move in an east-southeastward fashion at 9 kt.  This binary
interaction is only temporary, however, and Omar should return to an
eastward track by Friday morning as the low pressure system
downstream accelerates northeastward.  Afterward, a turn toward the
northeast is forecast early Saturday morning in response to an
approaching frontal boundary from the northwest, and the Azores high
several hundred miles to the east building southwestward over
the central Atlantic.  The official forecast is a little to the
south of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the
various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 35.4N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 35.3N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 35.3N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 36.3N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 37.5N  56.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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