[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 030844
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Nana Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162020
400 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2020

Nana made landfall on the coast of Belize about 45 n mi south of
Belize City around 0600 UTC today.  It is estimated to be located
inland and weakening over the southern part of that country with
maximum winds of no more than 60 kt at this time.  The small
circulation will be moving over mountainous terrain today and
tonight, so rapid weakening is likely.  The official forecast is
similar to the Decay-SHIPS intensity guidance, and calls for the
system to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.  Although the
remnants of Nana are forecast to move into the east Pacific in about
36 hours, the model guidance is in good agreement that conditions
in that area will not be conducive for regeneration.

The tropical cyclone continues to move a little south of west, or
around 255/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Nana
should keep it moving on a west to west-southwestward track during
the next day or so.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one, and on the northern side of the guidance envelope.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning areas
in Belize, Mexico, Guatemala, and the Bay Islands of Honduras this
morning.  Storm surge along the Belize coast will subside this
morning as Nana moves farther inland.

2. Heavy rainfall with isolated maximum amounts as high as 8 to 12
inches could result in flash flooding in Belize, Guatemala, and
portions of southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 16.7N  88.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 12H  03/1800Z 16.4N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  04/0600Z 15.8N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  04/1800Z 15.3N  95.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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