[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1235 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Nana is centered near 17.1N 84.6W at 02/1500 UTC
or 130 nm ENE of Isla Roatan Honduras moving W at 15 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the NE semicircle and
150 nm in the SW semicircle of the storm. Nana will intensify to
hurricane strength late tonight before making landfall in Belize.
It will then rapidly weaken to a tropical depression during the
day Thu, inland over Belize and Guatemala. Please read the latest
NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

Tropical Storm Omar is centered near 36.2N 67.4W at 02/1500 UTC
or 270 nm NNW of Bermuda moving E at 11 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Omar continues to experience significant
NW shear, with scattered moderate convection displaced well SE,
within 180 nm, of the center. Omar is expected to continue moving
E Thu, while gradually weakening to a Tropical Depression. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa this afternoon
along 19W. Scattered moderate convection exists from 09N to 12N E
of 20W. This wave is expected to merge with a disturbance
centered a couple hundred miles SE of the Cabo Verde Islands by
Thu night. Gradually development of this system is then possible,
and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while it
moves west through the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
 It has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours,
but there is a medium chance over the next 5 days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 16N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 09N to 11N between 25W and 36W. Weak low pressure
developing in association with this low has some potential for
tropical development as it meanders over the central and eastern
tropical Atlantic ocean. There is a low chance of tropical
formation over the next 5 days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W from 15N southward,
moving W 10 knots. No significant convection is observed.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W from 17N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed
behind this wave from 11N to 13N between 55W and 59W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from 20N southward,
moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
12N to 16N between 68W and 72W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the central coastal sections
of Mauritania near 18N16W to 12N30W to 12N47W. The intertropical
convergence zone continues to 12N60W. In addition to the
convection described in the tropical waves section, Scattered
moderate convection is evident form 12N to 14N between 36W an
39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, to a 1017 mb high
pressure center that is near 28N85W. The ridge continues
southwestward, to the coast of Mexico along 20N.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will support moderate to
fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf, and light to gentle
breezes over the eastern Gulf through tonight. The high pressure
will lift north of the area later in the week ahead of a trough
entering the eastern Gulf. The trough will dissipate over the
central Gulf by Fri. Looking ahead, a weak front will stall over
the northern Gulf Sat and dissipate through late Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
about T.S. Nana.

Moderate to fresh E winds are noted south of Cuba, with to 5 ft
seas. Gentle to moderate E winds are noted elsewhere north of 15N
with light breezes south of 15N.

Moderate to fresh trades will persist over the central Caribbean
through Sun with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak trough has become ill-defined and dissipated over the NW
Bahamas this afternoon. A ridge is oriented along 28N. Moderate
to fresh E winds are noted south of 22N, with moderate SE winds
off northeast Florida. Light breezes are noted in between along
the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in open waters outside of the
Bahamas.

A ridge extending from the central Atlantic to near Bermuda to
the northern Bahamas is lifting northward ahead of a westward
moving trough entering the southern Bahamas. The trough will move
west of the area tonight into Thu, supporting fresh to locally
strong winds off Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward
Passage tonight into Thu morning. The ridge will remain along 29N
Thu and Fri, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 22N.

Farther east, broad ridging north of 20N is supporting moderate
trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas over most of the eastern Atlantic.

$$
KONARIK
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