[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 021448
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 02 2020

Although is seems as though we've been predicting it ad nauseam,
the persistent, blistering shear has finally begun to dramatically
affect the cyclone.  What remains of the deep convective cloud mass
is separated more than 100 miles east-southeast of the exposed
surface circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based
on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB using
the shear scene-type.  Omar's winds should begin to decrease later
tonight as the exposed surface center further decouples from the
convective mass.  A few of the large-scale models show Omar
dissipating as soon as Friday, but for this NHC intensity forecast,
I'll indicate weakening to a depression Thursday, followed by
degeneration to a remnant low in 36 hours, similar to the
multi-model consensus intensity aids and the LGEM.

Omar's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 080/11 kt, and
is being steered by the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies produced
by a subtropical ridge anchored over the central Atlantic.  Omar
should continue on this general course through Friday.  On
Saturday, the remnant low is expected to slow a bit, and turn
toward the east-northeast in response to an approaching frontal
boundary moving away from the Canadian Maritimes.  No significant
changes were made to the previous track forecast, and the new NHC
forecast is based on a blend of the HCCA and GFEX consensus models.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/1500Z 36.2N  67.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 36.5N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 36.5N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 36.3N  59.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/1200Z 36.2N  58.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  05/0000Z 36.4N  56.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/1200Z 37.0N  55.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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