[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Nana, at 02/0600 UTC, is near 17.0N
81.8W. NANA is about 230 nm ENE of Limon in Honduras, and about
370 nm to the E of Belize City in Belize. NANA is moving W, or
270 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is
999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with
gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation:  Scattered to numerous strong
is within 240 nm of the center in the W quadrant. NANA is
expected to become a hurricane by tonight. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm Omar, at 02/0300 UTC, is near 35.8N
70.0W. OMAR is moving ENE, 065 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind
speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong is within 190 nm of the center in
the E quadrant. OMAR continues to move away from land, with no
change in strength.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is expected to enter the Atlantic Ocean in about
24 hours. The tropical wave will merge with a disturbance that is about
200 nm to the SE of the Cabo Verde Islands, during the next 24
hours to 48 hours. Gradual development of this system is
possible. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by
this weekend, while it moves slowly westward in the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please, read the North Atlantic
Tropical Weather Outlook for the latest updates.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 31W/32W from 15N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation
is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W from 19N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N southward between
50W and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is present, in the area of
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W from 15N
southward moving W 15 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is present, in the area of
upper level cyclonic wind flow.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the central coastal sections
of Mauritania near 19N16W, to 11N26W 13N34W 11N40W 12N46W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated strong is within 400 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough; isolated moderate to locally strong is within 200 nm to
the north of the monsoon trough; isolated moderate is elsewhere
from 18N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, to a 1018 mb
high pressure center that is near 27N86W. The ridge continues
southwestward, to the coast of Mexico along 20N.

High pressure in the eastern Gulf of Mexico will support
moderate to fresh southerly winds in the western Gulf of Mexico,
and light to gentle breezes in the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
through mid week.
The high pressure will move to the north of the area later in
the week, in advance of a trough that will be entering the
eastern Gulf of Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near SE Cuba.
Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea
and parts of the Atlantic Ocean from 15N to 24N between 70W and
79W. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and
weakening but continuing isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong, from 14N to 24N between 64W and 79W, in
parts of the Caribbean Sea and in parts of the Atlantic Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N between 73W in Colombia and
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is
within 350 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, in Colombia,
between 73W and 77W.

Tropical Storm Nana near 17.0N 80.9W 999 mb at 11 PM EDT moving
W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Nana will
move to 17.1N 83.5W Wed morning; strengthen to a hurricane near
17.0N 86.3W Wed evening; inland to 16.8N 88.6W Thu morning; move
inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 16.5N 90.7W Thu
evening; weaken to a remnant low near 16.2N 93.1W Fri morning;
and dissipate Fri evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean, and
parts of the Caribbean Sea, from 12N northward between 40W and
65W. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 18N northward between
40W and 64W.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 20N northward from 80W westward. A surface ridge extends
from a 1023 mb high pressure center that is near 33N53W, through
30N65W, beyond central Florida, to a Gulf of Mexico 1018 mb high
pressure center that is near 27N86W.

A ridge, that extends from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas,
will lift northward tonight, while a westward-moving trough
approaching the Turks and Caicos Islands this evening passes
through the southern Bahamas. The trough will move to the west
of the area on Thursday, supporting fresh to locally strong
winds off Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windwards Passage
from Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. The ridge will remain along 29N on
Thursday and Friday, supporting moderate to fresh trades south
of 27N.

$$
mt
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