[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 020235
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Omar Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152020
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Omar is battling strong northwesterly shear, as any burst of
convection that tries to develop near the center is quickly pushed
off well to the southeast of the cyclone's exposed low-level center.
The initial intensity is being held at 35 kt based on a combination
of the latest Dvorak CI values from UW-CIMSS, SAB and TAFB, as
as well as data from a recent ASCAT overpass showing similar winds
compared to earlier today.

These intermittent bursts of convection should sustain Omar as a
tropical storm at least through early Wednesday. However, the shear
is expected to get even stronger by late Wednesday, which should
cause a weakening trend to begin around that time. By Thursday
night, if not sooner, any organized deep convection is expected to
have diminished, and Omar is forecast to become a remnant low.  An
approaching frontal system should absorb what is left of the
remnants a couple of days later. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is the same as the previous one, and is in agreement with the
various intensity aids.

Omar continues to move east-northeast, now at 12 kt. The steering
pattern is straightforward over the next few days, as the cyclone
will be steered east-northeast then eastward around the northern
periphery of a subtropical ridge. Later on in the forecast period,
once Omar has become a remnant low, a turn to the northeast is
expected ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. The latest NHC
track forecast is little changed from the previous one, and lies in
the middle of the tightly clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/0300Z 35.8N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  02/1200Z 36.4N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0000Z 37.0N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  03/1200Z 37.2N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  04/0000Z 37.0N  60.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1200Z 36.9N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  05/0000Z 37.4N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  06/0000Z 40.0N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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