[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
150 PM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 34.7N 73.1W at
01/1500 UTC, or 120 nm ESE of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving
ENE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm in the E
semicircle. On the forecast track, the center of the depression
will continue to move away from the North Carolina coast today.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

Newly formed Tropical Storm Nana is centered near 16.6N 77.9W at
01/1700 UTC, or 100 nm SSE of Negril, Jamaica and 595 nm E of
Belize City, Belize, moving W at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with
gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 250 nm of the NW quadrant and scattered moderate
convection is within 150 nm of the NE quadrant. On the forecast
track, Nana will be moving near but north of the coast of Honduras
on Wednesday and likely be approaching the coast of Belize on
Thursday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 28W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 27W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 31W from 16N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 07N to 13N between 40W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 52W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from
06N to 15N between 50W and 54W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W from 20N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the northern portion of the wave from 16N-19N between
63W-67W, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 12N28W to 11N37W to 13N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 07N to 15N between 20W to 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging continues to stretch across the Gulf with
isolated thunderstorms off the Florida coast. Otherwise, no
significant convection is noted. Light to gentle winds are over
the eastern Gulf with moderate to fresh southeasterly winds in the
western Gulf. Seas range 4-6 ft with upwards of 8 ft off the
South Texas coast.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will support moderate to
fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf, and light to gentle
breezes over the eastern Gulf through mid week.The high pressure
will lift north of the area later in the week ahead of a trough
entering eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
regarding T.S. Nana.

Scattered moderate convection is moving across the eastern
portion of the Dominican Republic in addition to portions of the
Windward Passage. Isolated thunderstorms are also seen off the
coast of eastern Panama/NW Colombia in addition to the Gulf of
Venezuela. Outside of T.S. Nana, light to gentle trades are
observed across the basin with fresh winds in the Windward
Passage. Seas are 2-6 ft with upwards of 9 ft near the center of
T.S. Nana.

Tropical Storm Nana will move to 16.4N 79.6W this evening, 16.6N
82.3W Wed morning, 16.7N 85.1W Wed evening, 16.8N 87.4W Thu
morning, then inland to 16.5N 89.6W Thu evening. T.S. Nana will
become a remnant low and move to 15.7N 91.7W Fri morning. T.S.
Nana will dissipate early Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information about Tropical Depression Fifteen.

A trough is analyzed north of Puerto Rico from 28N67W to 20N67W
with scattered moderate convection along the trough from 20N-25N
between 67W-70W. No other significant convection is noted across
the Atlantic. Otherwise, surface ridging extends across the basin
anchored by a 1026 mb high near 34N47W. Winds are generally light
to gentle across the western Atlantic seas 3-5 ft. Winds are
gentle to moderate in the central and eastern Atlantic with seas
5-8 ft.

A ridge extending from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will
lift north today as trough currently south of 23N through Puerto
Rico moves northwest into the southern Bahamas by late today. The
trough will move west of the area Thu, supporting fresh to strong
winds off Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windwards Passage
Wed night into Thu morning. The ridge will remain along 29N Thu
and Fri, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 27N.

$$
AReinhart
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