[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Fifteen is centered near 33.2N 75.7W at
01/0300 UTC, or 122 nm S of Cape Hatteras North Carolina, moving
NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the E
semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

A broad area of low pressure is associated with a tropical wave
along 74W over the central Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 14N to 19N between 72W
and 77W. This system has changed little in organization since
yesterday, and satellite-derived winds indicate that there is no
closed circulation. However, environmental conditions are
expected to gradually become more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the
Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation with this system during the next 48 hours. Please see
the latest Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 27W from 16N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 22W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 38W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 06N to 14N between 34W and 43W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 51W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection from
06N to 14N between 46W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 14N17W
to 11N24W to 12N33W to 10N45W to 11N51W to 09N55W. Aside from
the convection described in the tropical wave section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 09N to 13N
between 12W and 18W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface ridge prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, with
1017 mb high pressure analyzed near 26N84W. Scattered showers
are over the NE Gulf, N Florida and central Florida. Moderate
to locally fresh southerly winds prevail across the waters W
of 90W, with 4-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to moderate winds
are across the eastern Gulf with seas ranging from 2-4 ft.

High pressure will dominate Gulf waters through mid week then
lift north ahead of a trough approaching from the east.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information
regarding the potential for tropical cyclone development over
the central Caribbean Sea.

Earlier scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds in the
central Caribbean between the low/tropical wave and Hispaniola,
where seas likely peak around 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds prevail across the western Caribbean, with scattered
showers over the SW Caribbean S of 13N.

Low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea between Colombia
and Haiti is moving quickly west and will cross the western
Caribbean through the week. Environmental conditions are
gradually becoming more favorable for tropical development and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. A surface trough will move through the Leeward Islands and
northeast Caribbean through early Tue. Overall, moderate trade
winds will prevail.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information about Tropical Depression Fifteen.

A subtropical ridge axis extends from 1026 mb high pressure near
34N46W westward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted near a surface trough that extends
from 22N63W to 17N64W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh
trades persist over the central Atlantic, with 5-7 ft seas based
on earlier altimeter passes.

Over the W Atlantic, high pressure oriented along 28N will
dominate through late in the week. A westward moving surface
trough, accompanied  by fresh trades, will reach along 70W Tue,
75W Wed, and 80W Thu.

$$
Formosa
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