[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane ZETA made landfall, at 28/2100 UTC, near Cocodrie in SE
coastal Louisiana. ZETA now is about 60 nm inland, in SE Louisiana.
ZETA is moving rapidly through Alabama, with dangerous storm surge,
strong and gusty winds, and heavy rain.

The center of Hurricane ZETA, at 28/0500 UTC, is near 32.4N 87.9W.
This position also is about 60 nm/90 km SSW of Tuscaloosa Alabama.
Zeta is moving NE or 40 kt at 31 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 985 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots
with gusts to 80 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
covers nearly the entire state of Alabama, from 120 nm to 360 nm to
the NE of the center of ZETA. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, issued by NHC, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.
Please, read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public
Advisory on Zeta, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W/51W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong covers the waters from 08N to 14N between 46W
and 60W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 61W/62W from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong covers the waters from 08N to 14N
between 46W and 60W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated to locally strong is from 20N southward between 54W and 68W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from SE Cuba
southward. The tropical wave is moving westward 15 to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N between 72W and
84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N13W, to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to 06N27W
and 07N39W, to 03N43W and 03N49W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong is within 120 nm to
the north of the ITCZ, and within 60 nm to 75 nm to the south of
the ITCZ, between 30W and 40W. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from
30W eastward, and within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ between
40W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Hurricane ZETA, at 28/0500 UTC, is near 32.4N 87.9W.
This position also is about 60 nm/90 km SSW of Tuscaloosa Alabama.
Zeta is moving NE or 40 kt at 31 kt. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 985 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 knots
with gusts to 80 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
covers nearly the entire state of Alabama, from 120 nm to 360 nm to
the NE of the center of ZETA. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecast, issued by NHC, at the website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for marine impacts.
Please, read the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory, and the Public
Advisory on Zeta, at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

A cold front passes through coastal Louisiana near 30N92W, into
the Gulf of Mexico near 24N92W, to the coast of Mexico near
19N96. The cold front continues toward the west and northwest in
Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
20N to 24N between 90W and 93W.

Zeta will weaken to a tropical storm near 35.5N 83.5W Thu morning,
then become extratropical as it moves into the northwest Atlantic
offshore Delaware and New Jersey. A cold front currently extends
from SW Louisiana to Veracruz Mexico. This front will move
southeastward, and it will clear the basin on Friday. Fresh to
strong northwest winds behind the front will spread across the Gulf
of Mexico through early Friday. By Fri afternoon, strong north winds
will be confined to the Bay of Campeche, then diminish to fresh
speeds late on Friday night. High pressure will build into the area
behind the front, through the weekend, with winds diminishing and
seas subsiding throughout.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough passes through 23N62W in the Atlantic
Ocean, curving southwestward through the eastern one-third of
the Caribbean Sea, beyond the northern coast of Venezuela that
is along 68W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and isolated to locally strong is from 20N southward
between 60W and 72W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N, from 73W in northern
Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: One cluster of
numerous strong is within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela and 75W in
Colombia. A tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from SE Cuba
southward. The tropical wave is moving westward 15 to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and
isolated to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N between 72W and
84W.

The current 77W/78W western Caribbean Sea tropical wave will
cross the western Caribbean Sea through Friday. The current
61W/62W tropical wave will cross the Lesser Antilles tonight.
This wave will cross the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday,
and the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday and Sunday. It is
possible that, early next week, a low pressure center may
develop from this tropical wave, in the SW Caribbean Sea, with a
possibility of slow tropical development. Gusty winds, and
rainshowers and thunderstorms, will accompany this wave,
particularly in the Greater Antilles. The middle level to upper
level trough, that is extending into the eastern Caribbean Sea, has
reached the 700-850 mb level. The 61W/62W tropical wave is
interacting with this trough, in order to produce abundant
precipitation. Abundant moisture and heavy rain are expected in the
Lesser Antilles through Thursday, in Puerto Rico from Thursday night
into Friday, and in Hispaniola on Friday/Saturday, related to this
tropical wave/middle level to upper level trough system.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 32N42W to 23N62W, across the
northern islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea, beyond northern
coastal Venezuela that is along 68W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 20N to 32N between
37W and 50W.

A tight pressure gradient, between lower pressure in the
Caribbean Sea and central Atlantic Ocean high pressure, will
lead to moderate to fresh winds S of 27N through Thursday night.
A cold front will move off the SE coast of the U.S.A. on
Thursday night, with some strong SW winds ahead of it, N of 29N
N. These winds will spread eastward, as the front reaches a line
from Bermuda to the Bahamas to Cuba this weekend, and then
stalls. Some strong N winds are possible behind the front N of
29N during the upcoming weekend. A stronger cold front will
sweep across the western half of the area early next week. This
will be followed by strong to near gale-force north to northeast
winds and building seas, mainly to the north and northeast of
the Bahamas.

$$
mt
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