[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 212317
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Oct 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Epsilon is near 29.6N 60W at 21/2100
UTC, or about 340 nm ESE of Bermuda, moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered to 955 mb.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 100 kt with gusts to
120 kt. Tropical storm-force winds extend as far as 390 nm in
the NE quadrant and 300 nm in the NW quadrant, 120 nm in the S
semicircle. Wave heights of 12 feet or greater extend up to 720
nm from the center in the NE quadrant, 360 nm SE quadrant, 450 nm
se quadrant and 480 nm NW quadrant with maximum wave heights up
to 37 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
within 60 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is in bands out to 660 nm from the center in the E
semicircle and 210 nm in the W semicircle. The hurricane is forecast
to turn toward the north-northwest or north by Thursday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Epsilon is forecast to make its
closest approach to Bermuda Thursday afternoon or evening.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W from 01N-15N, moving
W at 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
within 200 nm either side of the wave axis from 02N-10N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 49W from 03N-18N, moving
W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
within 220 nm east side of the wave axis, 180 nm west side of the
wave axis, and scattered moderate convection in the northern
section of the wave from 14N-19N between 46W-52W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near
14N16W to 12N20W. The ITCZ is along 06/07N between 20W-32W, along
05/06N between 38W-47W, and along 09N between 51W-57W. Aside from
the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the
ITCZ from 02N-07N between 21W-27W and from 05N-10N between
38W-47W. Scattered showers are seen in the vicinity of the
monsoon trough East of 23W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad 1008 mb low pressure is near Cozumel Mexico with a trough
That extends across the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf near
22N95W. A 1024 mb high pressure is centered over North Carolina.
The gradient between the high and the low is currently producing
fresh E winds over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico,
mainly north of 23N and east of 94W. These winds will continue
through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere
through Sun. Currently, enhanced moisture and upper-level
diffluence over southern Florida and the Florida Straits are
enhancing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, mainly east of 85W.

The combination of high pressure over the eastern United States
and western Atlantic with broad low pressure over western
Caribbean will support fresh to strong easterly winds over the
eastern Gulf through early Thu. Mainly fresh easterly winds will
persist over the eastern Gulf through Sat. A weak cold front
will move into the NW Gulf Sat, then reach from west-central
Florida to southern Texas late Sat and become stationary. Gentle
to moderate northerly winds will follow in behind the front on
Sat. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds will continue elsewhere
across the area through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low just west of Cozumel
Mexico near 20N87W to a 1008 mb low in the SW Caribbean near
15N81W to 11N80W. This entire system is a broad, weak trough of
low pressure. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted from 13N-21N between 68W-82W and impacting Hispaniola,
Jamaica, the Cayman Island and Cuba. Scattered showers and
tstorms prevail elsewhere across the western and central
Caribbean between 67W-72W. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate to
fresh SE winds north of the trough to the coast of Cuba and
Jamaica. Light to gentle winds are west of the trough in the Gulf
of Honduras.

Troughing across the western Caribbean will persist over the next
few days, and any development is expected to be slow to occur.
Winds and seas are expected to increase east and southeast of
the Windward Islands on Sat due to a tropical wave that is
currently well east of the Windward Islands. The wave will move
across the eastern Caribbean late Sat into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Abundant moisture and upper-level diffluence over Florida and the
Bahamas region are leading to scattered moderate showers and
isolated tstorms over the entire area west of 72W from 24N-33N.
Similar convection is seen north of Hispaniola, mainly south of
21N between 68W-72W. ASCAT pass shows fresh E winds from 23N-32N
between 69W-81W. Strong N winds associated with the circulation
of Hurricane Epsilon are east of 69W and north of 25N.

In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends northeastward
from 26N25W to beyond 30N10W. A plume of moisture about 160 nm
wide extends from 24N22W to 30N10W and contains scattered
showers. Fresh winds prevail north of the moisture plume.

Major Hurricane Epsilon will move near 30.5N 60.9W late tonight,
to near 31.8N 61.6W Thu afternoon, then move north of the area
to near 33.0N 62.0W late Thu night. The gradient between strong
high pressure over the western Atlantic and Hurricane Epsilon
will maintain strong winds and large seas over the western waters
through Fri. Long-period northeast to east swell will continue
to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas through
late Sat.

$$

MTorres
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