[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 210236
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on
satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast
becoming increasingly symmetric.  Also the eye, which was
intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better
defined.  Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with
a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB.  This is the tenth hurricane
of the season.

Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning
to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading.  The hurricane is
expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in
response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and
northwest.  In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift
eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the
north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center
coming closest to the island in around 48 hours.  In 3 to 4
days, the  hurricane should turn northward and move through a break
in the subtropical ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, the
system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it
begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies.  The official
forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction
and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus.

Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over
marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate
vertical shear during the next day or so.  In 36 to 48 hours, the
oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very
low which should limit further intensification.  The official
intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.
By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and
merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be
extratropical by that time.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time
it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday.  While
it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track
and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf
conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 28.5N  56.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  21/1200Z 29.2N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  22/0000Z 29.9N  59.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  22/1200Z 31.0N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  23/0000Z 32.2N  61.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  23/1200Z 33.5N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  24/0000Z 34.6N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  25/0000Z 38.4N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 44.0N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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