[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Oct 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 31N55W, or about 500 nm to
the east of Bermuda. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated to widely scattered strong is
from 90 nm to 180 nm of the center in the north quadrant, from
150 nm to 435 nm of the center in the east quadrant. Isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm of the center in the
western quadrant. The sea heights are forecast to range from 8
feet to 9 feet around the low pressure center in about 12 hours.
The circulation center is becoming comparatively better
organized. The precipitation that is around the low pressure
center is becoming comparatively more organized. Additional
development of this system is expected. It is likely for a
subtropical depression to form during the next few days, while
the low meanders well to the southeast of Bermuda. The chance of
formation during the next 48 hours is medium. Please, read the
latest Tropical Weather Outlook,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 20N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within
400 nm to the east of the tropical wave.

A surface trough is along 50W/51W, from 10N to 18N.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong
is within 240 nm to the east of the trough. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 270 nm to the west of the trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/58W, from 16N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 120 nm to 180 nm on either side of the
tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 20N and the
Dominican Republic southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N,
and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to
20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 10N21W, curving to 07N30W and 07N35W. The ITCZ
is along 08N/09N between 37W and 56W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 420 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough from 31W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through NE Florida, to 29N along the Florida
west coast, to 27N90W, to 25N97W, to the coast of Mexico near
22N98W. The front curves northwestward, and inland, in Mexico.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally
strong covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward between 82W
and 90W.

The current cold front will reach from central Florida to
Veracruz in Mexico on Saturday, and then stall and dissipate in
the SE Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Fresh to strong NE winds and
building seas are expected to the north of the front through
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W, from 20N and the
Dominican Republic southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 600 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N,
and within 600 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 17N to
20N. A broad upper level trough extends from the tropical wave
near 15N northeastward, into the Atlantic Ocean, toward the 1011
mb low pressure center that is near 31N55W.

The GFS model for 500 mb shows an inverted trough, that extends
from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua, northeastward to NW
Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate covers the rest of the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 15N northward from Jamaica
westward.

The monsoon trough passes through 11N just to the north of Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, to the coast of Panama along 79W, to
Nicaragua near 12N85W, beyond 10N87W in the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to
strong in clusters is from 15N southward from 80W westward in
the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Scattered moderate to strong
is along the coast of Colombia from 11N to 12N between 73W and
74W, and in the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia.

A tropical wave will move across Hispaniola and the central
Caribbean Sea overnight. The tropical wave will reach eastern
Cuba and Jamaica on Sunday. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form early next week in the southwestern Caribbean
Sea. Some gradual development of this system is possible through
the middle of next week, while it moves slowly through the
western Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N79W, to NE Florida, and beyond
it, into the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate
to strong covers the area that extends from Cuba near 22N to 27N
between 74W and 80W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
locally strong, is elsewhere within 500 nm to the E and SE of
the cold front.

A second surface trough curves along 23N42W 28N41W 32N42W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 31N northward between 40W and 44W.

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 31N26W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from
28N northward between 20W and 32W.

The current cold front, that is moving off the SE coast of the
U.S.A., will extend from 31N73W to South Florida on Saturday,
and then it will stall and dissipate on Sunday. Fresh to strong
NE winds and building seas are expected to the north of the
front this weekend. It is possible that a broad non-tropical low
pressure system, that is located about 600 miles to the
east-southeast of Bermuda, may become a subtropical or tropical
depression during the next few days, as it meanders in the
central Atlantic Ocean. The gradient, between high pressure to
the north and the low pressure center, will increase winds and
seas in the NE waters from Sunday through Wednesday.

$$
mt
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