[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Oct 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection from 15N to 18N between 28W and 33W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 16N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
from 09N to 11N between 51W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are north of
16N within 60 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 10N20W, and to 07N30W. The ITCZ is along 03N/04N
between 32W and 45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is from 03N to 14N between 24W and 29W. Isolated showers elsewhere
from 20N southward and 60W eastward.

A surface trough extends from 15N43W to 04N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 44W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front is near the coast of Texas and Louisiana.
An upper level trough is moving into the central Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 24N to 26N between
81W and 87W.

A cold front entering the NW Gulf this morning will extend from
northern Florida to Tampico Mexico tonight, then stall and
dissipate in the southeast Gulf. Fresh to strong northeast winds
and building seas are expected north of the front through
Saturday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad upper level trough extends across the Caribbean Sea from
Hispaniola to southern Belize. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 79W and 85W.

A tropical wave is along 68W, from 19N southward, moving westward
at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are north of 16N within 60 nm
of the wave axis.

The monsoon trough extends eastward into northern Colombia from
the Eastern Pacific Ocean from 09N84W to 11N73W. Isolated showers
are associated with the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean Sea.

A tropical wave south of the Mona Passage will reach the Windward
Passage on Sat. A broad area of low pressure may form early next
week in the SW Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system is possible thereafter, as it moves slowly northwestward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A short wave trough is moving past the offshore waters of NE
Florida with minimal convection.

A surface trough is along 54W, from 25N northward. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 24N northward between 51W and
56W. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development of this
system is possible through the middle of next week. This area of
broad low pressure is forecast to meander in the central Atlantic
Ocean well to the southeast of Bermuda. The chance of formation
into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is low. Please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook for more details.

Another surface trough extends from 25N41W to 29N40W to 33N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm to the east and
northeast of the trough.

A cold front will move off the southeast U.S. coast tonight,
extend from 31N69W to central Florida Keys Saturday night, then
stall and dissipate on Sunday. Fresh to strong northeast winds
and building seas are expected north of the front this weekend. A
broad non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form over
the next couple of days east-southeast of Bermuda. The gradient
between this low center and high pressure to the north will
increase winds and seas across the NE waters by Sun evening.

$$
Mundell
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