[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Oct 15 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 18N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis from
08N-10.5N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 14N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are within 180 nm of the
wave axis north of 08N.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is E of the wave axis over the Lesser Antilles from 13N-16.5N
between 59W-63W.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is over the Bay of Campeche along
94W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No shower
activity is occurring with the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to
08N22W to 07N29W to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to
05N39W to 07N44W to 10N46W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface pressure pattern prevails across the region. A
broad ridge extends southwestward from the Carolinas to the
north-central Gulf of Mexico to near Veracruz Mexico. The tail
end of a dissipating stationary front over the Florida Straits is
producing scattered showers.

A cold front will enter the NW Gulf late tonight into Fri and
extend from near Tampa Bay, Florida to Tampico Mexico Fri
evening, then stall and dissipate over the SE Gulf through Sun.
Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow the front
through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are seen in the western
Caribbean from 12N-16N between 77.5W and Nicaragua. This
convection is also occurring over eastern Honduras, much of
Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica.

The active tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean will reach
the Mona Passage on Fri. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
across portions of the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico through
the next day or two. The tropical wave will reach the Windward
Passage on Sat. Winds will increase in the south-central
Caribbean tonight as high pressure builds N of the area. A broad
area of low pressure could form by early next week over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some gradual development of the
system will be possible thereafter while it moves slowly
northwestward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N63W to 26N68W to
the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate showers extend over
the northwest Bahamas and Florida Straits. A surface trough
extends along 54W from 27N northward. An upper-level trough is
over the same area. Scattered showers are from 23N-32N between
50W-56W. Another trough is from 32N41W to 26N39W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the trough. A 1016 mb
low is over the E Atlantic near 32N27W.

A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Fri evening, extend
from 31N69W to the Florida Keys Sat evening, then stall and
dissipate on Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are
expected north of the front this weekend. A broad non-tropical
low pressure system is expected to form over the next couple of
days several hundred nm east-southeast of Bermuda. The pressure
gradient between the low center and high pressure to the north
will bring an increase in winds and seas across the waters north
of 25N between 50W-70W on Sun, spreading southward and westward
to north of 23N between 50W-75W on Mon.

$$

Hagen
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