[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 17W from 17N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
along the wave from 04N-17N between 15W-21W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 42W from 14N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 09N-13N between 36W-41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 19N
southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1011 mb low is along the wave
near 13N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is just to the east of the low from 12N-15N between 51W-54W.
Seas are up to 11 ft near the low. Upper-level winds are
gradually becoming less conducive, so only some slight
development is possible today while the system moves westward. By
tonight, upper-level winds are expected to become even less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation to occur. This system
has a low chance of development through the next 48 hours and the
next 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook
at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 78W from
22N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
seen within 75 nm of the wave from 15N-22N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the Senegal coast near 13N17W
to 07N31W. The ITCZ continues from 07N31W to 09N41W, then
continues from 09N42W to the coast of French Guiana near
05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of
the monsoon trough between 17W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is pushing off the NW Gulf coast, stretching
from the central Louisiana coast near 29N91W to the middle
Texas coast near 27N97W. No significant convection is
associated with this front. A trough in the southern Bay of
Campeche is analyzed from 22N92W to 19N93W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the Mexican coast near Tampico, from
21N-24N between 96W-99W. Otherwise, high pressure is building
across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE winds are
behind the cold front with gentle winds across the rest of the
basin with calm seas.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu.
The cold front will stall later today before dissipating at
night. A second cold front will enter the NW Gulf early on Fri
and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico Fri
evening. The front will stall and weaken over the SE Gulf Sat
night. Fresh to strong NNE winds are expected behind the front
through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the central Caribbean tropical wave.

A surface trough is noted near the Mona Passage from 21N66W to
16N70W. Thunderstorms are noted across eastern Hispaniola.
Isolated thunderstorms are moving across the Lesser Antilles and
the eastern Caribbean from 12N-18N between 60W-67W. The monsoon
trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 11N76W to the
Nicaragua/Costa Rica border near 11N84W with a 1010 mb low near
10N78W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along
the monsoon trough from 09N-13N between 74W-84W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from 18N-21N
between 82W-86W. Light to gentle trade winds prevail across the
basin with moderate trades north of Colombia. Seas average 3-5
ft.

A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building
seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles today and
Wed, and to the eastern half of the Caribbean Wed through Sat
night. Moderate trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
increase to fresh speeds Thu evening as high pressure
establishes N of the area. These winds will prevail through the
weekend, increasing to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
the Atlantic tropical waves.

A trough off the Florida coast in the western Atlantic extends
from 30N77W to 28N80W. The dying cold front extends across the
western Atlantic to the Bahamas from 30N72W to 24N79W. Scattered
moderate convection is along and east of this boundary from 24N-
31N between 69W-79W.

A trough in the west-central Atlantic is analyzed from 29N60W to
24N68W. A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 32N52W with a trough
extending south of the low to 29N57W. A 1017 mb low is analyzed
near 27N43W with a trough extending along the low from 31N43W to
24N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between these
features from 18N-29N between 39W-59W. In the eastern Atlantic, a
1014 mb low is near 29N25W with a trough extending along the low
and off the Western Sahara coast from 35N31W to 21N17W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 28N-33N between 24W-
30W. Gentle to light winds prevail across the basin with seas
averaging 3-6 ft.

The dying cold front will extend from 31N72W to near 26N74W this
evening, before dissipating early on Wed. A second cold front
will move off the SE coast of the United States Fri evening and
extend from 31N71W to near 26N80W Sat evening. Fresh to strong
NNE winds and building seas will follow the front and will affect
the waters N of 27N.

$$

AReinhart
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