[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Oct 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N-20N with axis near 38W, moving W
at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N-12N between 36W-41W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N-20N with axis near 53W, moving W
at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is along the wave axis near
12N53W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-24N between
46W-57W. Some slow development is possible today. However, by
tonight, upper-level winds are expected to become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation to occur. This system has a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please
read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean S of 20N with axis
near 75W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted between Jamaica and Haiti as well as within 120 nm of the
coast of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 07N21W to 06N28W. The ITCZ begins near 06N28W and continues to
08N36W, then resumes west of a tropical wave near 08N41W to
10N50W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves
described above, scattered showers are noted from 05N-17N east of
21W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure anchored by a 1017 mb high near 27N88W provides
light to gentle variable wind across the gulf waters. A line of
showers,remnants of a former front, extends from the Florida
Straits westward to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fair weather conditions
dominate elsewhere.

High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. A
cold front extending from 29N93W to 27N97W will stall later today
before dissipating at night. A second cold front will enter the NW
Gulf early on Fri and extend from the Florida Big Bend to near
Tampico, Mexico Fri evening. The front will stall and weaken over
the SE Gulf Sat night. Fresh to strong NNE winds are expected
behind the front through Sat evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are in the far eastern Caribbean being supported
by an upper level trough that extends from the central tropical
Atlc SW to a base near northern Colombia. Diffluence between the
upper trough and an upper level high over the western half of the
basin supports similar rainshower activity over the SW and NW
Caribbean. Otherwise, a tropical wave near 75W is generating
showers between Haiti and Jamaica.

A tropical wave will bring moderate to fresh winds and building
seas to the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles today and
Wed, and to the eastern half of the Caribbean Wed through Sat
night. Moderate trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will
increase to fresh speeds Thu evening as high pressure establishes
N of the area. These winds will prevail through the weekend,
increasing to strong in the Gulf of Venezuela at night.

For more information on the tropical waves, see the Tropical
Waves section above.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N73W to the northern Bahamas near
25N78W will start weakening today and extend from 31N72W to near
26N74W this evening, before dissipating early on Wed. A second
cold front will move off the SE coast of the United States Fri
evening and extend from 31N71W to near 26N80W Sat evening. Fresh
to strong NNE winds and building seas will follow the front and
will affect the waters N of the Bahamas.

Otherwise, a couple of surface trough are over the central and
eastern Atlc supporting scattered showers. Surface ridging
dominates elsewhere.

For information on tropical waves, see the Tropical Waves section
above.

&&
Ramos
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