[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Oct 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 05N-22N with axis near 48W, moving
west about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 10N-22N between 42W-54W. Some slight
development is possible during the next day or so while the
disturbance moves generally westward. Strong upper-level winds
are expected to limit further development by midweek. This system
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.
Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 71W,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and tstms are over Jamaica
and Hispaniola adjacent waters as the wave traverses the region.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 10N15W
to 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W to 05N37W to 07N45W.
Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave near
48W, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N E of 23W, and
from 07N-10N between 31W-40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front extending from 26N82W to 24N88W will exit the
basin later today while weak high pressure continues to build
across the basin. The high will support light to gentle variable
wind through early on Tue. Light to moderate N to NE wind will
dominate afterwards through Thu evening. The next cold front will
come off the coast of Texas Thu night and extend from Tampa Bay to
the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night. Fresh to strong NNE winds will
follow this front.

Otherwise, aside from scattered showers off the western coast of
the Yucatan pensinsula due to the pressence of a surface trough,
fair weather conditions are elsewhere and are expected to continue
through the end of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the central basin, supporting
showers and tstms. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above
for further details.

Scattered showers and tstms are over the SW basin supported by the
EPAC monsoon trough while the base of an upper level trough
extends to the E Caribbean, thus supporting isolated showers over
the Lesser Antilles adjacent waters.

Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean
will diminish to moderate this evening. A tropical wave with axis
near 48W, and with low chance of cyclone formation within the next
2 days, will bring moderate to fresh winds and building seas to
the tropical waters E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E
Caribbean Tue through Sat night. Rainshowers are expected over
this area as the wave progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate ENE winds elsewhere will change little through Fri night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave with low chance of cyclone development within the
next 2 days is moving across the central Atlc with fresh to strong
winds and scattered showers associated with it. Please, refer to
the Tropical Waves section above for further details.

Moderate to locally fresh return flow ahead of a weak
cold front extending from 31N77W to the coast of central Florida
near 27N80W will diminish tonight. The front will extend from
30N75W to Great Abaco Island tonight, from 30N72W to 27N74W Tue
night before dissipating farther NE on Wed night. Mainly light
to gentle variable winds will dominate the SW N Atlc region the
remainder forecast period, except S of 22N where the passage of a
tropical wave over the E Caribbean will support moderate to
locally fresh winds Thu and Fri.

The remainder central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of
the Azores high. Otherwise, an upper level trough support a pair
of surface troughs that are generating scattered showers and tstms
N of 22N between 39W and 56W.

$$
Ramos
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