[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112318
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 46W to the S of 17N moving west about
15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N-17N between 42W-48W. Some slow development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
generally westward near at 10-15 kt. Moisture associated with
this wave is forecast to reach the tropical waters between 55W
and the Lesser Antilles on Tue. Strong upper-level winds are
expected to limit additional development by midweek. This system
has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours,
and through 5 days. Please read the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave is along 69W/70W to the S of 21N. The wave is
helping to induce some convective activity over Hispaniola and
the Mona Passage.

A tropical wave extends across Central America and the EPAC's
waters, with axis along 87W from 01N-20N, moving west at 10-15
kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 14N17W
to 11N21W. The ITCZ continues from 11N21W begins near 09N27W to
00N30W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-08N
between 12W-18W, and from 06N-10N between 32W-37W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from northern Florida to near 26N87W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the frontal
boundary forecast to move will southeastward across central
Florida this evening, reaching South Florida on Monday producing
some shower and thunderstorm activity. A weak ridge dominates
the remainder of the Gulf waters with a 1015 mb high pressure
located near 25N92W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly
light to gentle winds are noted, with the exception of gentle to
moderate southerly winds over the NW Gulf. The high pressure will
shift eastward ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the NW
Gulf Mon night. This front will dissipate over the northern Gulf
on Tue. A second and better defined cold front is expected to
enter the NW Gulf Thu night followed by fresh to strong northerly
winds. The front is forecast to reach the SE Gulf Fri night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

There are two tropical waves across the basin. Please, see
the Tropical Waves section above for details.

Fresh trade winds over the southwest and south-central Caribbean
will pulse to strong speeds tonight. Moderate to fresh winds in
the Windward Passage and the Gulf of Honduras will diminish
tonight. A strong tropical wave, currently near 46W, will bring
moderate to fresh winds and building seas to the tropical waters
E of the Lesser Antilles and to the E Caribbean Tue through Sat.
Showers are expected over this region of the basin as the wave
progresses westward. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds
elsewhere will change little through the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An active tropical wave is moving across the tropical Atlantic.
Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details.

W of 65W, surface ridging extending over the region will continue
to support moderate to fresh return flow ahead of a weak cold
front forecast to enter the NE Florida adjacent waters late
tonight. The front will extend from 30N73W to Andros Island by
Tue morning, then begin to stall Wed. Mainly light to gentle
variable winds will dominate the region the remainder forecast
period.

A surface trough extends from 31N55W to 25N64W. An area of
showers with embedded thunderstorms is ahead of the trough
covering the waters N of 29N between 52W-55W. Another trough is
analyzed from 31N45W to 25N47W.

The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1037
mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient
between the high and lower pressures over W Africa is resulting
in moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the Canary Islands and
over the waters N of the Cabo Verde Islands to about 21N.
Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds.

$$
GR
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