[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT31 KWNH 110842
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number  27
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   AL262020
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2020

...POST-TROPICAL DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.6N 87.7W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SSW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and
near the southern Appalachians.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta
was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 87.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 15
mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, as Delta's
surface low is expected to dissipate across the central
Appalachians late Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of northeast Georgia, the
western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta are
expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, which
could lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, especially in
areas of steep terrain. Isolated minor river flooding is possible.

Across much of the rest of the Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected. Localized flash and urban
flooding are possible, but overall hydrologic impacts are expected
to be minimal.

Moderate to major river flooring will continue across the Calcasieu
and Vermillion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week.


TORNADOES:  A few brief/weak tornadoes are possible across the
Carolinas today.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  11/0900Z 34.6N  87.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  11/1800Z 35.5N  85.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  12/0600Z 36.8N  82.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  12/1800Z 37.5N  79.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  13/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
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