[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Oct 09 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 09/1700 UTC, is near 28.5N
93.7W. This position also is about 85 nm/150 km to the SSW of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving N, or 0 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within 170 nm of the center in the N quadrant.
Scattered to numerous strong is elsewhere, from 26N northward,
between 92W and 96W, and from the coast inland northward for another
150 nm to 200 nm, between 90W and 96W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate to isolated strong also is from 280 nm to 420 nm to the
south of Hurricane Delta, between 91W and 95W. The center of
Hurricane DELTA is moving northward, toward the coast of SW
Louisiana. Hurricane conditions, and a life-threatening storm surge,
are expected to reach the northern sections of the coast of the Gulf
of Mexico later today. The hazards that will be affecting the land
are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf. Hurricane
conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are expected to begin
along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, on
Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 17N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from the ITCZ to 09N between 36W and
40W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, within 240 nm
to the west of the tropical wave, and within 540 nm to the east of
the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb trough shows
up well, in the GFE model field, vertically stacked with respect
to the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the NE of the tropical
wave, and within 820 nm to the east and southeast of the
tropical wave. All the precipitation is occurring from 10N to
25N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 15N to 16N. Isolated moderate is between 72W
and the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is between the tropical wave and 80W from 15N to 20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 12N16W, to 10N20W, 08N30W, 08N34W, and 05N35W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N35W, to 04N38W, and to 03N42W. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolate to locally strong,
is from 17N southward from 50W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The center of Hurricane Delta, at 09/1700 UTC, is near 28.5N
93.7W. This position also is about 85 nm/150 km to the SSW of
Cameron in Louisiana. DELTA is moving N, or 0 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. The maximum sustained
wind speeds are 100 knots with gusts to 120 knots. Precipitation:
numerous strong is within 170 nm of the center in the N quadrant.
Scattered to numerous strong is elsewhere, from 26N northward,
between 92W and 96W, and from the coast inland northward for another
150 nm to 200 nm, between 90W and 96W. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate to isolated strong also is from 280 nm to 420 nm to the
south of Hurricane Delta, between 91W and 95W. The center of
Hurricane DELTA is moving northward, toward the coast of SW
Louisiana. Hurricane conditions, and a life-threatening storm surge,
are expected to reach the northern sections of the coast of the Gulf
of Mexico later today. The hazards that will be affecting the land
are: storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, and surf. Hurricane
conditions, and life-threatening storm surge, are expected to begin
along sections of the coast of the northern Gulf of Mexico, on
Friday. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/
Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more
details.

Delta will move inland to 30.0N 93.0W this evening and weaken to
a tropical storm near 32.2N 91.8W Sat morning. Delta will weaken
to a tropical depression near 33.7N 90.2W Sat evening and reach
35.0N 88.4W Sun morning. Delta is expected to become a remnant
low in Tennessee Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. In its
wake, weak high pressure will build across the area into early
next week. Swell from Delta will spread across the Gulf of
Mexico into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level cyclonic circulation center is in
the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, about halfway between NW
Cuba and the eastern sections of Honduras. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within
360 nm of the cyclonic center in the southern semicircle,
between 80W and the Gulf of Honduras.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 23N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb trough shows
up well, in the GFE model field, vertically stacked with respect
to the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the NE of the tropical
wave, and within 820 nm to the east and southeast of the
tropical wave. All the precipitation is occurring from 10N to
25N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W/75W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 60 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 15N to 16N. Isolated moderate is between 72W
and the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is between the tropical wave and 80W from 15N to 20N.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/11N, from 73W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate to strong in clusters is
from the monsoon trough to 15N from 80W westward, in the waters
of the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea.

Building high pressure over the northwest Atlantic Ocean will
support fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the south
central Caribbean Sea, and gentle to moderate trade winds and slight
seas elsewhere into Saturday. The winds and the seas will diminish
across the basin through early next week as the high pressure shifts
east. A tropical wave may impact the Atlantic Ocean waters to the
east of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N48W, to 27N70W, to NE Florida.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolate to widely scattered strong covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between 43W and 57W.

A surface trough is along 36W/37W, from 16N to 31N. Precipitation:
isolated moderate is within 300 nm on either side of the trough,
from 23N northward.

The current cold front will stall along roughly 26N later today. The
western part of the front will lift back north as a warm front
through early Sat. Behind the front, a tightening gradient will
bring fresh northeast to east winds over most of the northern waters
Fri through late Sat. A weak pressure pattern will allow for gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas from Sun into early
next week.

$$
mt
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