[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Delta is located near 19.5N 85.1W at 07/0300 UTC or 115
nm ESE of Cozumel Mexico moving WNW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 90
nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is elsewhere within 300 nm N semicircle and 180 nm S
semicircle. Maximum wave heights are estimated to be 29 ft near
the center of Delta. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula
this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the southern and
central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday and approach the northern
Gulf Coast on Friday. Although some weakening is likely when the
center moves over the Yucatan Peninsula, restrengthening is
expected when Delta is over the southern Gulf of Mexico. Wave
heights over the central Gulf of Mexico are forecast to reach 37
ft by Thursday evening. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis over West Africa along 15W is moving W at 15
kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within
120 nm ahead of and 210 nm behind the wave axis from 08N-14N.

The tropical wave that was analyzed along 58W at 06/1800 UTC has
been relocated to the east along 54W. Long term satellite imagery
and TPW loops indicate the wave has been moving slower toward the
west than previously analyzed. The tropical wave is currently
moving to the W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is from 11N-22N between 48.5W and the wave
axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
12N15W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from 10N19W to 07N33W to
09N52W. Scattered moderate showers are along and within 210 nm S
of the ITCZ between 24W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Hurricane Delta.

The 1005 mb remnant low of Gamma is along the north-central coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low will dissipate this morning. A
surface trough extends from 21N89W to 26N92W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection covers the Gulf of Mexico south of
28.5N and east of 94W. Fresh wind speeds currently cover most of
the Gulf of Mexico.

Major Hurricane Delta will emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula and
move into the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon. Delta will
reach near 24N92W Thu morning, 27N93W Fri morning, and approach
the Louisiana coast near 29N92W Fri evening. Seas are forecast to
build to 37 ft over the central Gulf near the center of Delta by
Thu evening. Conditions over the N Gulf will gradually improve
Sat as Delta moves farther inland over the Mississippi Valley.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section for information on Hurricane
Delta.

A vigorous upper-level low centered near the Mona Passage is
inducing scattered moderate to strong convection to the south and
southeast of the upper low, mainly south of 16.5N between
60W-72W, including portions of the Venezuela coast. Scattered
moderate showers and tstorms are seen over portions of Central
America from Panama to southern Honduras due to the east Pacific
monsoon trough. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades to the
south of Hispaniola. Gentle winds are elsewhere, outside of
Hurricane Delta.

Major Hurricane Delta will move across the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula this morning, then move into the southern Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon. Winds and seas will then diminish in the
northwest Caribbean through Thu. Building high pressure over the
northwest Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds
mainly over the south-central Caribbean by late in the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail-end of a stationary front is over the W Atlantic from
32N65W to 29N70W to 31N74W. No significant showers are noted
along the front. Fresh E winds are pulsing off the north coast of
Hispaniola and through the Turks and Caicos Islands into the
central Bahamas, including the Old Bahama Channel. A surface
trough is analyzed along 63W from 24N-31N with no significant
convection. Farther east, a 1027 mb high centered east of the
Azores is supporting generally moderate trade winds across the
tropical Atlantic. Some Saharan dust is evident over the eastern
Atlantic, mainly north of 09N and east of 49W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front extending from
32N65W to 29N70W to 31N74W will persist through mid week. A
reinforcing cold front will move off the Carolinas and merge with
this front on Thu, then move east across the northern portion of
the area through the end of the week.

$$
Hagen
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