[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 040549
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gamma, located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula over the
extreme southern Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave accompanied by a small low pressure system is
located over the central Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles
southeast of Jamaica. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, environmental
conditions are expected to gradually become conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next couple of days. The system should move west-northwestward at
about 15 mph across the central and western Caribbean Sea today and
Monday, and then move into the southern or southeastern Gulf of
Mexico on Tuesday and Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty
winds will be possible across portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba,
and the Cayman Islands during the next few days, and interests on
those islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic.  Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next couple
of days while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.  Significant development is not expected beyond that time
due to the system moving into a region of strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central
Atlantic more than 1000 miles east-southeast of Bermuda is
associated with a surface trough of low pressure.  This system
is expected to move toward the west-southwest at around 10 mph,
and some slow development is possible during the next couple of
days before it too encounters strong upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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