[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022217
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Oct 2 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Recently formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Five is centered near
18.8N 85.3W at 02/2100 UTC or 130 nm SE of Cozumel Mexico moving
NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant, 180 nm SE quadrant, and 240 nm W
semicircle, including over northern Honduras, the east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula, the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. The
depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and each
the coast of the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula Sat afternoon.
The cyclone is likely to emerge into the Gulf of Mexico Sun or Sun
night, then turn west. This slow- moving tropical cyclone is
expected to bring heavy rain that could result in life-threatening
flash flooding over portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, far
western Cuba, and well away from the center in the Mexican states
of Campeche, Tabasco, and northern Chiapas, as well as northern
portions of Central America. Seas will build over the far
northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Channel through Saturday night,
and in the south-central Gulf through early next week. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and the Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 18N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. A broad and disorganized area of scattered
moderate convection resides from about 05N to 15N between 30W and
50W in association with this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 19N southward,
moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is located from 11N to 19N between 60W and 70W. This activity is
producing locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of
Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico. Environmental conditions are expected to become
slightly more favorable for development later this weekend while
the system continues moving W or possibly WNW. There is a low
chance of tropical cyclone formation with this wave in the next 2
days and a medium chance in the next 5 in the Central and Western
Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 10N25W. The ITCZ continues from 10N25W to 09N33W,
and from 07N40W to 06N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
near the ITCZ between 28W-33W. Otherwise, convection near the
ITCZ is mainly associated with the tropical waves described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southwest Florida near 26N81W to
22N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of
the front. Strong NE winds are occurring NW of this boundary
across much of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Farther north, a
reinforcing cold front is moving through the northern Gulf,
stretching from near Tampa Bay to 24N95W. Fresh to locally strong
NE winds follow the reinforcing front.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five near 18.8N 85.3W
1005 mb at 5 PM EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30
kt gusts 40 kt. Twenty-Five will strengthen to a tropical storm
near 19.5N 86.1W Sat morning, move to 20.5N 87.0W Sat afternoon,
21.6N 87.5W Sun morning, 22.3N 87.7W Sun afternoon, 22.5N 88.0W
Mon morning, and 22.5N 88.8W Mon afternoon. Twenty-Five will
change little in intensity as it moves near 22.5N 91.0W Tue
afternoon. A stationary front from southwest Florida to the
central Yucatan adjacent waters will dissipate tonight. A
reinforcing cold front over the northern Gulf will move across the
northeast Gulf today, eventually stalling and dissipating across
southern Florida and the southeast Gulf through Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection in the NW Caribbean is due to Tropical Depression
Twenty-Five. Please see the Special Features section above for
details. Convection between 60W-70W is due to the tropical wave
in the eastern Caribbean, also described above in the Tropical
Waves section.  Light to gentle winds are noted in the far SW
Caribbean south of 14N west of 76W. Seas are averaging 4 to 7 ft.

Tropical Depression Twenty-Five near 18.8N 85.3W 1005 mb at 5 PM
EDT moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt.
Twenty-Five will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.5N 86.1W
Sat morning, move to 20.5N 87.0W Sat afternoon, 21.6N 87.5W Sun
morning, 22.3N 87.7W Sun afternoon, 22.5N 88.0W Mon morning, and
22.5N 88.8W Mon afternoon. Twenty-Five will change little in
intensity as it moves near 22.5N 91.0W Tue afternoon. Otherwise,
fresh to strong trades are expected over the eastern and central
Caribbean through Sun night. Winds and seas will subside Mon and
Tue across the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N73W to Miami Florida. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm on either side of
this front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are occurring to the SE of
this boundary, with light to gentle winds to the NW. A reinforcing
cold front is moving SE from near 31N78W to near Daytona Beach
Florida. No significant precipitation is noted with the
reinforcing front.

For the forecast west of 65W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate into Sat morning. The reinforcing front will stall
during this time, then retreat northward as a warm front on Sun.
Meanwhile, the Bermuda High north of our area and lower pressure
in NW Caribbean associated with Tropical Depression Twenty-Five
will support moderate to fresh trades south of 22N, occasionally
pulsing to strong north of Hispaniola during the overnight hours
through Sun night. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will move
over the Atlantic waters east of NE Florida late Sun and dissipate
by early Tue.

Farther east, 1033 mb high pressure is centered near 41N38W. A
weak surface trough is noted along 44W from 25N-31N. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of this
trough. Fresh E winds persist near the trough north of 27N, but
winds and seas are expected to subside later tonight. Generally
moderate trades persist farther south into the tropics between
40W-58W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Fresh to strong NE winds with 6 to 9
ft seas are noted off North Africa.

$$
KONARIK
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