[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Oct 02 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea, along 83W/84W,
from 20N southward. A 1006 mb low pressure is along the tropical
wave near 16.5N. The wave is moving westward 10 knots.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm of
the center in the NE quadrant and in the SW quadrant. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 200 nm
of the center. Scattered strong is from 19N to Cuba between 77W
and 82W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is between 75W and
79W, from northern sections of Colombia to Jamaica and Cuba.
Isolated moderate to locally strong also is about 90 nm to the
WNW of the line that runs from NW Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
This same precipitation is to the ESE of the stationary front
that runs from the southern tip of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Satellite images indicate that precipitation pattern is becoming
better organized, slowly. A NOAA buoy, to the northeast of the
center, has reported winds to near tropical storm force during
the past few hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
on Friday or Saturday, but only if the system  remains over the
waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico. Development will become less likely if the system moves
inland in the Yucatan Peninsula, or inland in northern Central
America. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rains,
with possible flash flooding, in sections of southeastern
Mexico, Central America, and western Cuba, during the next
several days. Everyone who lives in those areas, and anyone who
has interests in those areas, should monitor the progress of
this weather situation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow
afternoon, if
necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the Atlantic
Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/012335_MIATW
OAT.shtml, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Any precipitation is possibly more closely related to the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is
within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 15N
southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela,
and within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N
southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela.
Scattered strong also is from 180 nm to 280 nm to the east of
the tropical wave from 14N to 16N.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either
side of the wave from 15N to 18N. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal near 13N17W to 12N18W. The ITCZ continues from 12N18W,
to 10N26W, and 09N33W, and from 05N to 07N between 36W and 57W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and
isolated to widely scattered strong, in clusters, is from 17N
southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is passing through the NW Bahamas, to south
Florida near 26N80W, to the northern sections of the Yucatan
Peninsula, and to the eastern sections of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is about 120 nm to the ESE of the stationary
front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, to the northwest of the stationary front. A 1020 mb
high pressure center is near the coast of Texas near 28N96W.

The current SW Florida-to-central Yucatan Peninsula stationary
front will dissipate slowly, by
early tomorrow morning. A reinforcing cold front will move
through the NE Gulf of Mexico on Friday, eventually stalling and
dissipating across S Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico by late
Saturday. A western Caribbean Sea well-defined tropical wave is
expected to develop into a tropical depression by early next
week, but only if the system remains in the waters of the NW
Caribbean Sea or in the S Gulf of Mexico. It is likely for this
situation to support strong to near gale-force winds and
building seas, in the south central and SW Gulf of Mexico, from
late Friday to early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean Sea, along 83W/84W,
from 20N southward. A 1006 mb low pressure is along the tropical
wave near 16.5N. The wave is moving westward 10 knots.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for a
tropical depression or a tropical storm to form on Friday or
Saturday, but only if the system  remains over the waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Development will become less likely if the system moves inland
in the Yucatan Peninsula, or inland in northern Central America.
This system is expected to produce locally heavy rains, with
possible flash flooding, in sections of southeastern Mexico,
Central America, and western Cuba, during the next several days.
Everyone who lives in those areas, and anyone who has interests
in those areas, should monitor the progress of this weather
situation. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow afternoon, if
necessary. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours is high. Please, read the Atlantic
Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook, at the following webpage,
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/012335_MIATW
OAT.shtml, for more details.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered strong is
within 135 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 15N
southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela,
and within 60 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 13N
southward to the coastal waters and coastal plains of Venezuela.
Scattered strong also is from 180 nm to 280 nm to the east of
the tropical wave from 14N to 16N.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either
side of the wave from 15N to 18N. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, from 70W in Venezuela
beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is
within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, between Lake
Maracaibo in NW Venezuela, and 76W in Colombia.

The current W Caribbean Sea well-defined tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized rainshowers and
thunderstorms. Conditions are expected to be conducive for a
tropical depression to form by early next week, but only if the
system remains in the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea or in the
southern Gulf of Mexico. It is possible that SE to S winds in
the NW Caribbean Sea may reach strong to near-gale force,
between Friday night and Saturday night, if the system ends up
developing. This pattern also will support fresh to strong trade
winds in the eastern and central sections of the Caribbean Sea,
between the low pressure and the Bermuda High that is in the
central Atlantic Ocean, through Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N74W, to the NW Bahamas, to
26N80W in south Florida. Precipitation: widely scattered to
scattered moderate, and isolated to locally strong, covers the
Atlantic Ocean within 240 nm to the southeast of the front.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from 24N northward between 34W and 54W. A surface trough is
along 22N38W to 35N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the trough,
and within 320 nm to the west of the trough, from 25N to 33N. A
second surface trough is along 50W, from 26N to 33N.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the
area that is from 25N northward between 45W and 66W.

The current 31N75W-to-SE Florida stationary front will dissipate
gradually, through Friday. A reinforcing cold front will move
into the waters off NE Florida late on Friday, before also
stalling from near 31N79W to central Florida by Saturday
afternoon, and then retreating northward as a warm front on
Sunday. The Bermuda High, that is to the north of our area and
lower pressure that is in the NW Caribbean Sea, will support
moderate to fresh trade winds to the south of 20N, occasionally
pulsing to strong north of Hispaniola during the
overnight hours through Sunday night. A third weak front will
move across the Atlantic Ocean waters to the east of NE Florida
on Monday, and dissipate by early Tuesday.

$$
mt
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