[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011802
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Oct 1 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1750 UTC.

...Special Features

A tropical wave along 81W, from 19N south through Panama and
into the eastern Pacific is moving west 10 to 15 knots. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N-20N
between 77W-84W and near the coast of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and
Honduras. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a
few days over the NW Caribbean Sea or the extreme southern Gulf
of Mexico in the vicinity of the wave as it moves slowly west-
northwestward. There is potential for a tropical depression to
develop over the next five days. Interests in Belize, the Yucatan
Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this
disturbance. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for development with high chance in the next 5 days.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was repositioned to 31W, from
15N southward due to the recent ASCAT pass which clearly shows
the wave axis to the east. The wave is moving west at 10 to 15
knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave
axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W, from 18N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident near the tropical wave from 08N to
18N between 54W and 62W.


...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 12N16W to 11N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N20W to 10N27W,
to 10N29W, and resumes west of the tropical wave from 08N36W to
11N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 13N
between 15W and 26W along the monsoon trough near Africa.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and 260 nm
north of the ITCZ from 10N-15N between 51W-54W. Other areas of
convection are described above in the Tropical Waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from southwest Florida to the
northwest part of the Yucatan peninsula near Merida, then farther
to the southwest over the extreme eastern Bay of Campeche to
Ciudad del Carmen. Clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms
are active along the front to the north of the Yucatan peninsula.
Recent scatterometer passes indicated northerly winds are 20 to 25
kt over the southern Bay of Campeche and in some areas within 180
nm north of the front. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 8 ft over
the southwest Gulf. Farther north, 1019 mb high pressure is
centered over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds are
noted across much of the northern and western sections of the
Gulf, with 2 to 4 ft seas. No other shower or thunderstorm
activity is observed.

For the forecast, the stationary front from SW Florida to E Bay
of Campeche will slowly dissipate by early Fri. A reinforcing
cold front will move through the NE Gulf Fri, eventually stalling
and dissipating across S Florida and SE Gulf by late Sat.
Meanwhile, environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development of a tropical wave over the W Caribbean, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the NW Caribbean Sea or
the south-central Gulf of Mexico on the weekend. This will likely
support strong to near gale-force winds and building seas over
the mainly the south-central Gulf from late Fri to early next
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident over
much of the eastern and central Caribbean between the high
pressure over the Atlantic and lower pressure related to the
tropical wave in the western Caribbean described in the section
above. A few clusters of showers and thunderstorms are also noted
across the central Caribbean, where the E trade winds converge
with SE winds closer to the axis of the tropical wave. Observations
from Leeward Islands show episodes of fresh to strong winds in
fast- moving rain squalls.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of the tropical wave over the W Caribbean, and a
tropical depression is likely to form over the NW Caribbean Sea or
the south-central Gulf of Mexico, possibly before the system
reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. If
the system does develop, then SE to S winds over the NW Caribbean
could reach strong to near-gale between Friday night and Saturday
night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong winds over
the eastern and central Caribbean between the low pressure and the
Bermuda High over the central Atlantic.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A few areas of thunderstorms are active along a stationary front
reaching from 32N73W to near Settlement Point, Grand Bahama, then
continues across South Florida. Deep layer moisture remains
fairly high east of the frontal boundary, and converging SE flow
is supporting other areas of thunderstorms mainly north of 22N SE
of the front to 71W. An upper trough is supporting a cluster of
thunderstorms farther east near 27N60W. The main synoptic feature
over the Atlantic is a 1033 mb high pressure area centered well to
the north near 40N39W. A recent scatterometer pass indicated a
surface trough embedded in the ridge just to the south of the high
pressure from 26N36W to 32N41W. This is supporting an area of
scattered moderate convection east of the trough, and moderate to
fresh winds and 8 ft seas from 29N to 34N between 33W and 43W.
Another area of fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 9 ft
is just east of the Leeward and Windward Islands associated with
the tropical wave in that area. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas characterize the
tropical and subtropical North Atlantic.

The stationary front extending from 31N76W to SE Florida will
gradually dissipate through Fri. A reinforcing cold front will
move into the waters off northeast Florida late Fri, before also
stalling from near 31N78W to central Florida by Sat afternoon
and dissipating through Sun. Meanwhile the Bermuda High north of
our area and lower pressure in the northwest Caribbean will
support moderate to fresh trades winds south of 20N, occasionally
pulsing to strong winds north of Hispaniola during the overnight
hours through Sunday night. On the extended outlook, a third weak
front will move south and stall from 31N72W to Central Florida by
Mon night.

&

Torres
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