[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Oct 01 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 16N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Any precipitation is possibly more closely related to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 200 nm to the west of the tropical
wave from 10N to 17N. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 200 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from the ITCZ to
16N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered
strong is elsewhere from 73W eastward. Broad upper level
cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the 71W
eastward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered
strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A
broad area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so in
the northwestern corner of Caribbean Sea, or in the extreme
southern Gulf of Mexico, in the vicinity of the wave, as the
tropical wave moves slowly west-northwestward. Atmospheric
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development. It is
possible that a tropical depression may form during the weekend,
as the system meanders. Residents and interests in Belize, the
Yucatan Peninsula, and western Cuba should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. The chance of formation into a tropical
cyclone, during the next 5 days, is medium.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W.    The ITCZ continues from
09N20W, to 09N25W, to 10N29W, and from 07N34W to 09N45W, to
09N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong, in clusters, is within
360 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 250
nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ, from 38W
eastward. Isolated to widely scattered moderate, and isolated to
locally strong, generally, is elsewhere from 20N southward from
60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front is passing through the NW Bahamas, to south
Florida, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, to the
northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern
Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered
moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 90
nm to the north of the stationary front. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and locally strong is within 120 nm to the
south of the stationary front.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico, to the northwest of the stationary front. A 1019 mb
high pressure center is near 28N95W.

A stationary front extends from southwest Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong N winds and seas to 12 feet in
the southern Bay of Campeche, west of the front, will
subside overnight. Moderate to fresh winds in the south central
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico will prevail thereafter, as an
area of low pressure develops in the far NW Caribbean Sea. It is
possible that these winds may reach near gale-force speeds, from
Thursday night through Monday, along with building seas, with
strong winds spreading into the north central Gulf of Mexico by
early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong is within 360 nm on
either side of the tropical wave. A broad area of low pressure
is expected to form in a day or so in the northwestern corner of
Caribbean Sea, or in the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico, in the
vicinity of the wave, as the tropical wave moves slowly
west-northwestward. Atmospheric conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical
depression may form during the weekend, as the system meanders.
Residents and interests in Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula, and
western Cuba should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next
5 days, is medium.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to scattered moderate,
and isolated to widely scattered strong is elsewhere from 73W
eastward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from the 71W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/13N, from 72W in northernmost
part of Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Any precipitation is close to the 80W tropical wave also.

Low pressure is expected to form along a tropical wave, that is
moving through the northwestern Caribbean Sea, during the next
couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for some development. It is possible that a tropical
depression may form during the weekend. This pattern may support
fresh to strong winds in parts of the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea, between the low pressure and central Atlantic
Ocean high pressure.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N73W to 31N75W. The front becomes
stationary at 31N75W, and it continues to the NW Bahamas, and to
south Florida. Precipitation: widely scattred to scattered
moderate, and isolated to locally strong, covers the Atlantic
Ocean within 360 nm to the east of the front.

The current stationary front will dissipate gradually, through
late Thursday. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds will
persist S of 20N, between high pressure near Bermuda and
developing low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

$$
mt
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