[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Nov 29 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW Gulf
of Mexico early Sun. The front will shift across the Gulf of
Mexico, reaching the southwest Gulf Monday morning. Gale-force
winds will develop W of the front within 60 nm of the coast of
Veracruz, Mexico. The gale force winds will prevail through Mon
before diminishing below gale force Tue. Seas generated from the
gale-force winds will peak near 15 ft on Mon. Please read the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 07N18W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near
03N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
03N-11N between 10W-53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section for information the gale warning
over the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A cold front extends from N Florida near 30N81W to 28N90W. A
stationary front continues to a 1011 mb low off the Texas coast
near 27N97W. A cold front extends SW from the low to NE Mexico
near 24N100W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf
of Mexico N of 27N between 85W-97W. Moderate to fresh winds,
and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Light winds are
over the NE Gulf, and gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
1-2 ft over the NE Gulf, and 2-3 ft elsewhere.

The front will accelerate SE Sun as low pressure lifts from the
Texas coast into Louisiana. By Sun evening, the cold front will
stretch from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and to the
eastern Bay of Campeche, then move southeast of the Gulf Mon
night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building
seas. Gales will occur in the extreme SW Gulf Mon into Mon night.
Winds diminish and seas subside Tue. High pressure in the wake of
the front will shift eastward Tue night through Wed night
allowing for fresh east to southeast flow to set up across the
area. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Wed night
and reach from near Mobile Bay to the central Gulf and central
Bay of Campeche by late Thu. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and building seas will follow in behind this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is over the SW Caribbean S of 11N.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range
over the central Caribbean, 3-5 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and
2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most
of the basin into the middle of next week, except for northeast
winds pulsing to strong speeds near the coast of Colombia at
night and into the early afternoon hours. A cold front will
reach the northwestern Caribbean Mon night, extend from eastern
Cuba to the northeastern Honduras Tue afternoon and become
stationary through Wed night and dissipate Thu. The front will
be followed by fresh to locally strong northwest winds and
building seas. Winds and seas are expected to diminish Tue night.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the
front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N68W to
29N71W to N Florida near 30N81W.. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the front. W of 65W, light to gentle winds, and seas
of 3-5 ft prevail.

In the central Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N54W to
26N54W to 21N57W.  Scattered moderate convection is N of 22N
between 44W-54W. Fresh to strong winds prevail north of 25N,
east of the trough to near 45W. Seas over this area are in the
8-12 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft,
prevail west of the trough to near 65W.

Farther east, a cold front is over the Canary Islands from
31N11W to 28N20W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the
front. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of the front. Over
the trade wind zone south of 20N, moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail with seas in the 6-9 ft range.

A weak cold front will move south to near 29N through Sun,
then lift back as a warm front Sun night. In the wake of
this front, strong S winds will develop Mon morning, as another
cold front approaches from the NW. This front will move off the
SE U.S. coast Mon, then cross the NW waters Mon night, pass
Bermuda and South Florida Tue morning, then stretch from near
31N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to eastern Cuba by early
Tue evening and weaken as it reaches from near 31N65W to eastern
Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northwest winds and building
seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 26N and W of
71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas shifting to
NE of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front. High pressure in the wake of the
front will shift eastward through Thu night.

$$
Formosa
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