[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The extended forecast, for 24 hours after the initial forecast
period, for the METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast, consists of the
threat of near gale or gale-force winds in the area that is
called: MADEIRA. Please, read the webpage:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2120.2
52120061918.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from
07N17W, to 07N30W, 06N37W, and to 05N44W. Precipitation:
Scattered to numerous strong is from 02N to 06N between 02W and
04W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to
13N between 30W and 43W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 10N southward from 20W eastward, and from 13N
southward from 45W westward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
within 270 nm to the north and northwest of Cuba and southern
Mexico. Upper level SW wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico. A cold front is passing through south central Louisiana,
to the deep south of Texas. No significant deep convective
precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery, with the front.

A surface ridge passes through central Florida, into the central
Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 20N along
96W/97W.

A weak cold front in the NW Gulf of Mexico will stall, and move
northward on Thursday. A strong cold front will move into the NW
Gulf of Mexico waters on Sunday morning. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will be spreading across the basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea, from
Hispaniola westward. A middle level inverted trough covers
Central America, from Panama to Nicaragua, to the Yucatan
Peninsula. Precipitation: Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is to the west of the line that runs from 10N75W,
to 16N81W, to SE Cuba. Earlier scattered to numerous strong,
that was covering parts of Nicaragua, Honduras, and El Salvador,
has weakened and dissipated, and it has moved westward, toward
the coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from 73W in northern
Colombia, southwestward, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 13N southward from 72W westward. This
area also is being covered by the middle level inverted trough
that is spanning Central America.

High pressure to the north of the region will increase the wind
speeds and the sea heights in the central Caribbean Sea through
Thursday. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across most
of the area from Thursday night through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1016 mb low pressure center is near 31N56W. A cold front
extends from the 31N56W low pressure center, to 25N55W and
20N59W. A second 1016 mb low pressure center is near 25N63W. A
surface trough curves from the 31N56W low pressure center, to
28N61W, to the 25N63W low pressure center. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the
east of the cold front from 21N northward. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are within 700 nm to
the east of the cold front, from 20N northward.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds, associated with high pressure
across the western Atlantic Ocean, will prevail across most of
the region, through early Thursday. Northerly swell behind the
front will impact the Atlantic Ocean waters and local passages
through Friday.

$$
mt
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