[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis passes through the northern coastal
sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N24W. The ITCZ axis continues
from 05N24W to 06N38W to the coast of far NW Brazil near 04N51W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
04N-09N between 13W-17W, from 04N-07N between 35W-40W, from 09N-
12N between 35W-40W, and from 07N-10N between 57W-61W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from along the southern Mississippi River to
near Shreveport, Louisiana to near Baffin Bay, Texas. A
prefrontal squall line is noted on radar from near New Orleans,
Louisiana to across south-central Louisiana into the southwest
Louisiana coastal waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is within 30 nm of the squall line. Elsewhere, scattered showers
are over South Florida and the southeastern Gulf, extending
northwest to the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE
return flow prevails across the basin late this afternoon, except
shifting moderate northerly winds behind the cold front.

High pressure over the eastern Gulf will gradually shift eastward
as a the cold front moves east-southeast the northern Gulf waters
tonight. The front will stall and lift northward on Thu. A weak
cold front may move into the north-central and northeast Gulf
coastal waters Fri night, stalling through Sat. A strong cold
front will move into the northwest Gulf waters Sun morning
returning fresh to strong northerly winds across the basin behind
it. The front is forecast to shift southeast of the basin Mon
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection is along the coast and just offshore
from Colombia to Panama northward to Honduras. Elsewhere,
scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
Hispaniola mostly due to the now dissipated tail end of a cold
front over the W Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE-E flow is noted
south of Hispaniola to 15N, northwest of the coast of Colombia,
and across the Windward Passage due to building high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over northern Colombia and
the southwest Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh trades prevail
elsewhere. Seas are 6-8 ft across the areas of fresh to strong
winds, and mainly 4-6 ft elsewhere.

The fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will persist
through Thu. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
most of the area Thu night into early next week. Looking ahead, a
cold front may move southeast of the Yucatan Channel into the
northwest Caribbean Mon through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N55W to a 1016 mb low pressure area
near 31N56W to another low pressure area 1015 mb near 26N59W to
north of the Virgin Islands near 21N64W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted north of 21N between 47W-57W.
A 1036 mb high is centered well north of the area southeast of
Nova Scotia near 44N59W. This high extends a ridge southwestward
to across the Florida Peninsula. Fresh to strong winds are noted
west of the front to 65W due to a tight pressure gradient between
the ridging and low pressure areas along the front. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail elsewhere under the ridge and behind the
front. Seas are 8-13 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds,
and 6-10 ft elsewhere west of the front, except 3 ft or less west
of the Bahamas. A 1034 mb high is centered over the Azores near
38N31W. This high and attendant ridging dominates the remainder of
the waters north of the ITCZ and east of the cold front.

The cold front over the central Atlantic will shift slowly
eastward this evening, then become stationary by Thu. The fresh to
strong winds just west of the front will prevail through Thu. The
large seas in northerly swell behind the front is expected to
continue to impact the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages
through Fri. The stalled out front will linger into the weekend,
becoming a remnant trough. A weak backdoor cold front may drop
south of 31N late Sat night into Sun, stalling and dissipating
along 27N by Sun evening. A stronger cold front will move into the
waters off the southeast U.S. coast Mon through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky
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