[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250555
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Nov 25 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The extended forecast, for 24 hours after the initial forecast
period, for the METEO-FRANCE high seas forecast, consists of the
threat of near gale or gale-force winds in the areas that are
called: IRVING, MADEIRA and CANARIAS. Please, read the webpage:
http://www.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.2033.2
420332460844.html, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near the border with Guinea, to 08N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N17W, to 07N22W, 05N26W, 06N35W, and 04N47W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
within 135 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 25W.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are to the east and southeast of the line that runs from 30N14W
to 25N27W and 12N38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface ridge extends from Georgia, to the central
Gulf of Mexico, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 20N98W.

A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf of Mexico late on
Wednesday. The front will stall and move northward on Thursday.
A strong cold front is expected to move into the northwest Gulf
of Mexico waters on Sunday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the western Caribbean Sea, from the
SW corner of the area to NW Cuba. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and locally strong covers the area
from 17N southward between 77W and 85W. Isolated moderate is
within 60 nm of the southern coast of Haiti.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from 73W in northern
Colombia, southwestward, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is within 150 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
between 76W and 80W. widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is from 13N southward from 76W westward.

High pressure, building behind a cold front that is to the north
of the region, will increase the winds and the seas in the
central Caribbean Sea through Thursday. Moderate to fresh trade
winds will prevail across most of the area from Thursday night
through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 32N59W, to a 1014 mb low pressure
center that is near 28N62W, to 22N70W, to the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and to SE Cuba. A surface trough extends from the 1014
mb low pressure center, to the Mona Passage. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
from 150 nm to 380 nm to the east of the cold front, from 24N to
30N. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of
the surface trough, from 16N in the Caribbean Sea to the 1014 mb
low pressure center.

The current cold front extends from 25N64W, across the Turks and
Caicos Islands, to the Windward Passage. The front will shift
eastward, slowly, and then become stationary on Thursday. Fresh
to strong NE winds, that are associated with the front, will
prevail across most of the region through early Thursday.

$$
mt
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