[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Nov 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning...The gradient of pressure has tightened
between a broad area of low pressure located about 450 nm
east of Bahamas and a strong ridge over the central Atlantic.
This is resulting in gale force SE winds within 90 nm east of the
trough axis that extends from 31N66W to a 1008 mb low near 28N67W
to 22N70W. These conditions are expected to dissipate tonight.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
09N13W to 09N18W. The ITCZ continues from 09N18W to 07N31W, then
resumes near 05N36W and continues to 02N51W. A 1009 mb low is
analyzed near 06N33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
03N to 15N between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure over the southeastern United States extends
southward into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally
fresh E to SE winds. Deep layer dry air dominates the region and
continue to support fair weather.

Fresh southerly return flow will prevail over the western Gulf
through tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach the
northern Gulf late on Wed, then stall and lift northward Thu.
Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to move across the
Gulf waters over the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure over both the Gulf of Mexico and the central
Atlantic continue to support moderate to locally fresh winds
across the basin. Scattered showers are observed in a swath from
Hispaniola, the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras to
Nicaragua adjacent waters. This activity is supported by shallow
moisture and divergent flow between two middle level anticyclones.

Surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico will shift eastward to the
region of the Bahamas today and will result in a stronger pressure
gradient in the Caribbean. This in turn will increase the winds
in the south-central Caribbean through Thu and support fresh to
strong NE winds across the Windward passage.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
currently in effect over the west-central Atlantic.

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N69W to
23N80W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail behind the
front, with seas to 7 ft. Ahead of the front is the low and trough
related to the Gale Warning described above. Scattered showers are
noted east of these features between 56W-64W. To the east, a
surface trough extends from 31N32W to 25N33W. Surface ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin.

The gale low/trough is expected to move northeastward, and there
is a slight chance that it could acquire some subtropical
characteristics before it merges with the cold front today.
Elsewhere, surface high pressure will dominate the remainder
central Atlantic waters along with moderate to fresh easterlies
and seas to 8 ft.

$$
ERA
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