[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231740
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Nov 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends its axis along 89W and from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave combined with
middle level divergent flow continues to produce widely scattered
moderate convection from 11N-19N between 80W-88W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
12N15W to 10N20W. The ITCZ begins near 10N20W and continues
to 10N30W to 05N46W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 03N-10N between 17W-42W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 03S-08N between 42W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 23/1500 UTC a cold front extends from Vero Beach Florida
near 28N81W to Bradenton Beach Florida near 27N83W to 26N90W to

S Texas near 26N97W. Radar imagery shows the front is void of
precipitation. Weak surface ridging ahead of the cold front
continue to support gentle to moderate northeasterly winds over
the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to locally fresh
northeasterly winds prevail over the western half of the basin.
Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range as indicated by recent altimeter
data.

The cold front will continue moving quickly across the basin
while weakening. High pressure will build in the wake of the
front. Fresh southerly return flow will set up over the western
Gulf tonight through Tue night ahead of the next cold front
forecast to reach the northern Gulf late on Wed, then stall and
lift northward Thu. Looking ahead, a third and stronger cold
front is expected to move across the Gulf waters over the
weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave moving over the far west Caribbean along with
divergent flow aloft continues to support convection . Latest
scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across the
western Caribbean, while moderate to fresh trades are noted
east of 73W. Dry air at the middle levels is supporting fair
weather elsewhere.

Moderate easterly winds and seas up to 8 ft will continue to
impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through this
evening. Building high pressure north of the area will bring
an increase in winds and seas across the south-central
Caribbean late Tue through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds are
expected across the Windward passage and south-central Caribbean
Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 23/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from
31N76W to Vero Beach Florida near 28N81W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 45 nm of the front N of 29N. Further E,
a 1011 mb low is centered near 27N71W. A surface trough extends
from 31N70W to the low to the S Bahamas near 22N72W. Scattered
moderate convection is E of the trough from 23N-31N between
61W-69W. Another surface trough is over the E Atlantic from
37N26W to 21N31W. Scattered moderate convection is from 29N-32N
between 25W-30W.

The W Atlantic low and trough is expected to move northeastward,
and there is a slight chance that it could acquire some
subtropical characteristics before it merges with a cold front
on Tuesday. The front will move into the NW waters today and
progress eastward through the middle of week while gradually
weakening Thu.

$$
Formosa
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