[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 230537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL 0605 UTC Mon Nov 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends southward from 20N to Honduras to over
the E Pacific waters near 07N87W, with axis near 87W moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave combined with middle level
divergent flow continues to produce scattered showers and tstms
over the NW Caribbean, portions of Honduras and Nicaragua as
well as Nicaragua adjacent waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of West Africa near
11N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ begins near 10N20W and continues along
06N36W to 0N50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging ahead of a cold front continue to support
moderate to locally fresh northerly winds over the western half of
the basin and light to gentle northeasterlies east of 90W. Water
vapor and low level precipitable water imagery show very dry
conditions that continue to support fair weather basin-wide. Only
patches of shallow moisture are present over the SW and NE gulf
associated with two former surface troughs. Seas are in the 3 to 5
ft range as indicated by recent altimeter data.

The cold front will reach the northern Gulf tonight into Mon and
quickly dissipate. High pressure will follow the front. Fresh
southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf Mon night
through Tue night ahead of the next cold front forecast to reach
the northern Gulf late on Wed, then stall and lift northward Thu.
Looking ahead, a third and stronger cold front is expected to move
across the Gulf waters during the upcoming weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave moving over the NW Caribbean and across Honduras
along with divergent flow aloft continue to support scattered
showers and tstms over that region. Latest scatterometer data show
gentle to moderate NE winds affecting the NW basin. This shower
activity extends to Jamaica, as well as portions of Cuba and
Hispaniola. Dry air at the middle levels is supporting fair
weather elsewhere. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge to the north,
continue to support moderate trades across the eastern Caribbean,
increasing to fresh over Venezuela adjacent waters.

Seas are 3 to 5 ft over the western half of the Caribbean, 5 to 7
ft E of 74W, and 8 to 9 ft over the Atlantic waters east of the
Lesser Antilles.

Otherwise, fresh easterly winds and seas in the 8-9 ft range will
continue to impact the waters east of the Lesser Antilles through
Mon night. Building high pressure north of the area will bring an
increase in winds and seas across the south- central Caribbean
Tue through Thu. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected across the
Windward passage Tue night through Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Latest scatterometer data show that a surface trough prevails east
of the Turks and Caicos Islands from 31N67W to 20N71W, which is
accompanied with moderate to fresh E to SE winds east of the
trough axis as well as scattered showers and tstms extending to
61W. Wave heights are up to 7 ft NE of the Bahamas and to 9 ft
between 27N, and Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

There is a slight chance that the surface trough could acquire
some subtropical characteristics as it moves northeastward over
the next day or so. On Tuesday, however, the disturbance is
expected to merge with a cold front. Later in the week, this
system may have a second opportunity to develop subtropical
characteristics if it becomes separated from the front and
meanders over the central Atlantic.

Otherwise, a surface trough is about 510 nm to the west of the
Canary Islands along 31N28W to 23N26W, which is supporting
scattered showers and tstms N of 28N between 24W and 28W. The
remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a surface
ridge that supports generally moderate trade winds.

$$
Ramos
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