[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Nov 21 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 17N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 20N: within
240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to
the west of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 19N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated to
widely scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 280 nm
to the east of the tropical wave, and within 600 nm to the west
of tropical wave from 13N northward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W/87W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is in the waters of the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from 19N southward from the tropical wave
westward to land.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 08N20W, and to 06N30W, and to 05N32W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N32W, to 01N43W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong, in
individual clusters, is from the monsoon trough southward, from
30W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 11N
southward between 30W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge extends from Mississippi, to the middle Texas
Gulf coast, to Mexico near 20N99W. A surface trough extends from
the NE part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
toward the northwest, to the coast of Mexico from 23N to 24N
between 97W and 98W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in the northern half of Guatemala, and in
Mexico between 90W and 93W in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico. Rainshowers are possible in the Gulf of Mexico
from 26N southward from 90W westward.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will continue to diminish,
overnight, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and in the Straits of
Florida. A weak cold front will move across the NE Gulf of
Mexico on Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are in the Caribbean Sea. One tropical wave
is along 74W. The second tropical wave is along 86W/87W. All the
precipitation that is in the Caribbean Sea is related to the
tropical waves.

The monsoon trough is along 11N75W in northern Colombia,
southwestward, across Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into
the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 76W
westward.

The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish gradually in
the NW Caribbean Sea through Saturday, as high pressure that is
to the north of the area weakens. Large northerly swell will
impact the Atlantic Ocean to the east of the Leeward Islands
through Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front passes through 32N45W, to 30N52W, 26N60W, to
22W70W, to the coast of Cuba near 21N76W. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the
north of the front, from 78W eastward. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 150 nm to the south of the front.

One 1019 mb low pressure center is near 27N29W. A surface trough
curves away from the low pressure center to 27N29W, to 26N30W,
and to 27N34W. A second 1019 mb low pressure center is near
31N28W. A surface trough extends from the low center beyond
34N29W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong is within 500 nm to the east of the low
pressure centers, from 25N northward. Rainshowers are possible
from 20N northward between 30W and 40W. A surface trough extends
from the low center beyond 34N29W.

The current stationary front will dissipate overnight. High
pressure, that is to the north of the front, will support fresh
to strong NE to E winds across most the region, through
Saturday. A trough is expected to form to the east of the
Bahamas during this weekend. It is possible for a weak low
pressure center to form by early next week. A weak cold front
will move into the NW waters on Monday.

$$
mt
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