[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170514
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.6N 83.4W
at 17/0300 UTC, or 30 nm S of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, moving
westward at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt.
Seas 12 ft or greater extend 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 150 nm
in the SE quadrant, 45 nm in the SW quadrant, and 180 nm in the
NW quadrant with peak seas up to 21 ft. Numerous strong
convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 81W to 87W. Iota is
expected to continue moving westward over the next day or two.
On the forecast track, Iota is expected to make landfall in
northeastern Nicaragua during the next hour or two and move
inland across northern Nicaragua and southern Honduras on
Tuesday. Iota is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is
forecast after Iota moves inland, and it is expected to dissipate
over Central America on Wednesday.

Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is expected
through Thursday across portions of Central America due to heavy
rainfall. Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could
be exacerbated by recent effects from Hurricane Eta, resulting
in significant to potentially catastrophic impacts.  Iota is
forecast to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches in Honduras,
northern Nicaragua, southeastern Guatemala, and southern Belize,
and isolated maximum totals of 30 inches, especially from
northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Please refer to
statements issued by your national meteorological service for more
details on the rainfall and flooding threats. Please read the
latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning: Strong autumn high pressure building southward
across the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front that extends from
south-central Florida to the southern Bay of Campeche. The high
pressure will create a very tight gradient between it and the
front by late Tue. This synoptic set-up is forecast to lead to
strong northeast winds, with frequent gusts to gale force over
the southeastern Gulf water, including the Straits of Florida
and waters adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula starting Tuesday
evening, 18/0000 UTC through Wednesday. Expect building seas 12
to 16 ft across this area. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning: The pressure gradient which will lead to frequent
gusts to gale force over the southeastern Gulf will also bring
frequent gusts to the western Atlantic off the coast of South
Florida and the Bahamas. These gusts will begin by Wednesday
evening,  19/0000 UTC. Expect seas to build 8 to 11 ft. Please
read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 30N from 16N
southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 28W to 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 54W from 18N
southward to Suriname, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 17N
between 51W to 55W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 18N
southward to northern Venezuela, moving westward at 5-10 kt.
There is no significant convection associated with this wave at
this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near
09N13W to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W to 06N29W then
continues west of a tropical wave near 06N31W to the coast of
Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is along the ITCZ from 01N to 07N between 18W to 38W.
Scattered moderate convection is north of the ITCZ from 04N to
06N between 41W to 49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Feature section above for details on an upcoming
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.

A cold front extends off the southwest Florida coast near 26N82W
to 25N89W. The front stalls from 25N89W to 23N93W to the southern
Mexican coast near 18N94W. Showers are within 50 nm of the front.
Moderate to fresh NNE winds are noted across the basin as high
pressure builds in behind the cold front. Seas are 3 to 6 ft with
upwards of 8 ft in the southern Bay of Campeche where strong to
near gale-force winds are noted.

The cold front will reach the SE Gulf Tue, shifting SE of the
basin Tue night. Fresh to strong NE winds, with frequent gusts
to gale force, are expected behind the front across the SE half
of the basin, including the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan
Channel Tue night through early Thu. Hazardous seas are expected
in the S-central and SE Gulf Tue through Wed night as swell from
Hurricane Iota spreads through the Yucatan Channel and combines
with NE wind waves. Conditions should improve by the end of the
week into the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Major
Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm. See
the Tropical Waves section for details on the central Caribbean
tropical wave.

Outside the influence of Hurricane Iota, scattered moderate
convection is moving across the northern islands of the Lesser
Antilles. Showers are also noted across the rest of the Lesser
Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted in the eastern
and central Caribbean with fresh to strong NNE winds in the NW
Caribbean and the Yucatan Passage. Seas range 3-6 ft outside the
influence of Iota.

Hurricane Iota will move inland to 13.7N 84.7W Tue morning,
weaken to a tropical storm near 13.8N 86.8W Tue evening, weaken
to a tropical depression near 13.8N 88.8W Wed morning, and
dissipate Wed evening. A cold front will move into the NW
Caribbean Tue night and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern
Gulf of Honduras early Thu. Strong northerly winds, with gusts
to gale force N of 20N, and large seas are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras Tue and Tue night. Hazardous seas will be possible
across the approach to the Yucatan Channel behind the front as
northerly wind waves mix with swell from Iota.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section for details on an upcoming Gale
Force warning in the western Atlantic.

The cold front in the western Atlantic stretches from 31N73W to
the southeastern Florida coast near 27N80W. A pre-frontal trough
is noted from 31N71W to 27N78W. Showers are noted within 50 nm
of the front. Moderate to fresh N winds are off the coast of
Florida from 28N to 30N and west of 79W, otherwise light N winds
are seen behind the front and light to gentle easterly winds are
ahead of the front. A cold front is noted in the central Atlantic
from 30N37W to 29N39W, then stalls from 29N39W to 28N55WW. No
significant convection is associated with this system. Gentle to
moderate northerly winds are behind the front with light winds
ahead of it. Two troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic. The
first is from 26N57W to 21N63W, and the other is from 24N34W to
17N38W. Showers are within 60 nm of these features. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 4
to 8 ft.

The cold front will reach from 31N68W to South Florida on Tue,
and from 25N65W to central Cuba on Wed night, stalling on Thu.
The front will weaken and retreat W-NW for the end of the week
into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are expected across
most the SW N Atlantic Tue night through Fri as the pressure
gradient tightens in the wake of the front. Frequent gusts to gale
force are possible from 22N-27N Wed night into early Fri.

$$
AReinhart
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