[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170031 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Nov 16 2020

Corrected satellite imagery time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Iota is centered near 13.6N 82.7W at 16/2100 UTC
or 50 nm ESE of Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua or 90 nm SSE of Cabo
Gracia a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduran border. It is moving
W at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 919 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Iota is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Iota is forecast to bring catastrophic winds, life-threatening
storm surge, and torrential rainfall to Central America. A
westward general motion is forecast through landfall. After
landfall, a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected.
On the forecast track, the core of Iota will make landfall within
the hurricane warning area in northeastern Nicaragua tonight,
and will dissipate over central America by Wednesday. Iota is
forecast to continue to be a catastrophic category 5 hurricane
when it approaches Central America tonight, and rapid weakening
is expected after landfall. Satellite imagery shows numerous
strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the western
semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere
within 150 nm of the center in the western semicircle and within
90 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection denotes an outer band from 12N to
16N between 77W-80W and from 16N to 19N between 78W-83W. Similar
activity is within 30 nm of line from 12N75W to 14N76W.

Flooding and mudslides in Honduras and Nicaragua could be
exacerbated by Hurricane Etas recent effects there, resulting in
significant to potentially catastrophic impacts. Iota is forecast
to produce rainfall amounts of 10-20 inches in Honduras,
northern Nicaragua, southeastern Guatemala, and southern Belize,
and isolated maximum totals of 30 inches, especially from
northeast Nicaragua into northern Honduras. Please refer to
statements issued by your national meteorological service for
more details on the rainfall and flooding threats. Please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.
shtml for more details.

Gale Warning: Strong autumn high pressure building southward
across the Gulf of Mexico behind a cold front that as of 2100 UTC
extends along a position from near Sarasota, Florida,
southwestward to 24N90W and to the central Bay of Campeche near
18N94W will create a very tight gradient between it and the front
by late Tue. This synoptic set-up is forecast to lead to strong
northeast winds, with frequent gusts to gale force over the
southeastern Gulf water, including the Straits of Florida and
waters adjacent to the Yucatan Peninsula into Wed. Expect rough
seas with these winds. Please read the latest NWS High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.


...TROPICAL WAVES

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W/29W
from 02N to 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is moving
through a stable atmospheric environment. Only scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is seen near the southern part of
the wave from 02N to 06N between 23W-29W and within 60 nm west
of the wave from 02N to 05N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of
18N to inland northeastern Brazil. It is moving westward around
10 kt. Upper-level divergence within this area is helping to
trigger off scattered moderate convection along and within 60 nm
east of the wave from 11N to 13N. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are from 13N to 18N between 51W-55W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis is along
66W/67W south of 20N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving
westward at 5-10 kt. This wave lacks deep convection at the
present time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone
near 08N13W to 07N18W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 06N28W. It
resumes west of a tropical wave near 06N30W and continues to
05N40W and to near the coast of Brazil and the mouth of the
Amazon River near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-33W and
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 33W-38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Feature section above for details on an upcoming
Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning.

As of 16/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near Sarasota,
Florida, southwestward to 24N90W and to the central Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm
northwest of the front from 20N to 22N. Fresh to strong
northeast winds are behind the cold front with seas up to 5-6 ft
in the coastal waters of Texas and Louisiana. On Tue night,
fresh to strong northeast winds with frequent gusts to gale force
are expected behind the front across the southeast part of the
basin, including the Straits of Florida and waters adjacent
to the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly moderate to fresh northeast
winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf, with seas 3 ft or
less in the eastern Gulf and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except for
5-7 ft seas with the fresh winds.

The aforementioned cold front will reach the southeastern Gulf
on Tue, then move southeast of the area by Tue night. Hazardous
seas are expected in the south-central and in the southeastern
Gulf Tue through Wed night as swell from Hurricane Iota spreads
through the Yucatan Channel and combines with NE wind waves.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on Major
Hurricane Iota and the impacts associated with this storm. Also
a tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. See the Tropical
Waves section above for details.

Outside of Iota and the tropical wave, scattered to broken low
clouds are noted over the eastern and northwestern part of
the sea. High cirrus clouds from outflow associated with Iota
are observed over the northwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
trades are over the eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate
northeast trades in the far northwest part of the sea. Seas range
3-6 ft outside of the influence of Iota.

As for the forecast: Major Hurricane Iota near 13.6N 82.7W 919
mb at 4 PM EST moving W at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 140 kt
gusts 170 kt. Iota will move inland to 13.7N 83.8W Tue morning,
move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 13.8N 85.6W Tue
afternoon, inland to 13.8N 87.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed
afternoon. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean by late
Tue, and stall from eastern Cuba to the northern Gulf of Honduras
early Thu. Strong northerly winds and wave heights in the range
of 10-14 ft are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue
night. Hazardous seas will be possible across the approach to the
Yucatan Channel behind the front as northerly wind waves mix
with swell from Iota.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As of 16/2100 UTC, a cold front extends from near 32N73W
southwestward to inland central Florida near Vero Beach.
Isolated showers are possible near the front. A dissipating cold
front is over the central Atlantic extending from near 32N36W to
28N45W and to 29N57W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm north
of the front west of 48W, while isolated showers are possible
along and within 30 nm south of the front east of 48W. Moderate
to fresh north-northeast winds are behind the front.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms, aided by an upper-level low
east of the Lesser Antilles, are moving north are noted from 14N
to 20N between 55W-61W.

As for the forecast, the front over the western Atlantic will
reach from near 32N67W to South Florida on Tue, and from 25N65W
to central Cuba on Wed, then stall on Wed night. Fresh to strong
winds will develop behind the front Tue night through Fri night
as the pressure gradient tightens. Wave heights will build up to
12-13 ft E of the Bahamas.

$$
Aguirre
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