[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 141457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection as dry air
entrains into the system's circulation. The edge of the only nearby
surviving convection is located about 60 n mi to the southeast of
the cyclone's center due to increasing northwesterly shear. A recent
ASCAT overpass showed a fair amount of wind vectors of 30-34 kt,
therefore the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The
shear is expected to increase even more today, and the surrounding
environment is forecast to dry out further. These factors, that
should persist for at least the next few days, should prevent any
new convection from developing near the center of Theta. The latest
NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low in 12 h
and dissipate in 72 h, as the circulation gradually spins down.

The storm is now moving just south of due east around 7 kt as it is
steered along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This
ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, which will
cause Theta to slow its forward motion. Early next week, increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front should pick up
the remnants of Theta and accelerate them northward, and then
northeastward. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the track consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 31.8N  20.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 31.6N  19.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  15/1200Z 31.7N  18.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  16/0000Z 32.4N  17.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  16/1200Z 33.7N  17.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0000Z 36.1N  16.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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