[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT45 KNHC 131456
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL302020
300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

Satellite images and microwave data this morning are showing that
Theta finally has a more classic appearance of a tropical storm.
There is a warming of cloud tops over the center, with a curved band
of convection wrapping around the eastern portion of the
circulation. The scatterometer overpasses missed the core of the
cyclone this morning. However, since the cloud pattern has not
degraded since the previous advisory, the intensity is being held at
50 kt for this advisory.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity today as the cyclone
continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to
upper-level trough axis.  By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is
forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets
entrained into its circulation.  As a result, Theta is expected to
spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday,
and dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta continues to move eastward at around 10 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern
tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual
slowing of the forward motion is expected later today and
continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid-
to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next
week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then
accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the
north of the region.  The NHC forecast is little changed from the
previous one and lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 31.7N  23.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 31.5N  22.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 31.3N  20.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 31.0N  19.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 31.1N  18.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  16/0000Z 31.3N  18.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  16/1200Z 32.8N  18.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  17/1200Z 37.4N  15.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto
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